- The Steelers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-1-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Steelers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
Bet now on Patriots vs Steelers & all NFL games with BetMGM
Steelers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | -1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -130 |
| Patriots | +1.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | 110 |
Steelers vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 60.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 60.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Patriots vs Steelers and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jonnu Smith has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Aaron Rodgers has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Calvin Austin III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kayshon Boutte has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).
- Steelers are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -26.39% ROI
- Steelers are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Steelers are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -10.42% ROI
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Patriots are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Steelers are 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.9 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Steelers were winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .249.
The Steelers are undefeated (3-0) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2024 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .644.
The Steelers were 6-2 (.750) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Patriots are 1-9 (.100) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2024 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have intercepted 19 passes since the 2024 season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Patriots were winless (0-3) after a win last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .588.
The Patriots were 2-11 (.154) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Patriots were winless (0-7) when allowing 27 or more points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have been successful on 50.7% of pass attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed a success rate of 54.5% on pass attempts this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of just 35.5% since the 2024 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 36.6% since the 2024 season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Patriots have been successful on 54.4% of pass attempts against a base rush this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Steelers have allowed a success rate of 53.8% on pass attempts with a base rush this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have been successful on just 29.2% of rush attempts with motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed a success rate of just 33.3% on rush attempts against motion this season — T-5th-best in NFL.
Steelers RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on just 2.6% of 39 carries this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed 10+ yards on just 0.0% of carries to RBs this season — T-best in NFL.
The Steelers are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Patriots have allowed just 3.1 yards per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers averaged 0.25 epa per play on contested throws last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Steelers averaged 8.4 yards per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Steelers have a third down conversion rate of 0% on play action passes since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Steelers have averaged 8.0 yards per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots have gone three and out 4 times in the 3rd quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Patriots have run 18% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 19.2 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.6.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense has missed 28 tackles this season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed 3.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (149 yards / 43 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.
The Steelers defense allowed scores on 18% of opponent drives (8/45) in the 3rd quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of rush attempts against play action passes since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has allowed successful plays on 69% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots defense has sacked opposing QBs on 36% of pass attempts (5/14) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 9%.
Only 4% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Patriots defense has allowed 13 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Patriots vs Steelers and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.
From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, thereโs something for everyone.
And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.
Log in to your BetMGM account today โ or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app โ to start betting!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.







