Steelers vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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General view as the Seattle Seahawks kick a point after against the Detroit Lions during an NFL football game at Ford Field in Detroit, Sunday, Oct. 28, 2018.

(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)

The Lions are -7 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 52 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (8-6-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The Steelers vs. Lions Over/Under is 52 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Steelers vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 74.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 50.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 60% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 44% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.45 Units / 44% ROI)
Chris Boswell has hit the Field Goals Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 34% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.05 Units / 29% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.15 Units / 68% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Jameson Williams has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 41% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 68% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.86 Units / 19% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.10 Units / 70% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.62 Units / 23% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 7-7 (-0.55 Units / -3.63% ROI).

Steelers are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 7.96% ROI
Steelers are 7-6 when betting the Over for +0.4 Units / 2.6% ROI
Steelers are 6-7 when betting the Under for -1.7 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 7-7 (-0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Lions are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -3.99% ROI
Lions are 9-5 when betting the Over for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
Lions are 5-9 when betting the Under for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Lions defense has stuffed 46% (12/26) of rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Lions defense has allowed first downs on 42% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 68%.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Lions defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Lions have run successful plays on 88% of rush attempts against a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Lions have averaged 0.23 epa per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.

The Lions have averaged 9.6 yards per play on play action passes this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 7.4.

The Lions have 15 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — T-most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions