Steelers vs Chargers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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An exterior view of SoFi Stadium before an NFL football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

(AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Steelers
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Inglewood, CA.

The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Steelers vs. Chargers Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Steelers vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Steelers	+3 -115	45 -115	130
Chargers	-3 -105	45 -105	-155

Steelers vs. Chargers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 58.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Steelers vs Chargers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today

DK Metcalf has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.35 Units / 47% ROI)
Jonnu Smith has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
DK Metcalf has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Jaylen Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 45% ROI)
Kenneth Gainwell has hit the Longest Rush Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Keenan Allen has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Justin Herbert has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Cameron Dicker has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Oronde Gadsden II has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Will Dissly has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.95 Units / 30% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in their last 9 away games (+9.10 Units / 89% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.10 Units / 35% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.95 Units / 35% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.15 Units / 27% ROI)

Chargers Best Bets:

The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 45% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 89% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 4-4 (-0.3 Units / -3.49% ROI).

Steelers are 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.4 Units / 3.07% ROI
Steelers are 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Steelers are 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / ROI

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 4-5 (-1.5 Units / -15% ROI).

Chargers are 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 3.12% ROI
Chargers are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Chargers are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of 49% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Chargers have faced a blitz 105 times this season — most in NFL.

The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of 56% in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Chargers have a third down conversion rate of 55% in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have averaged 9.9 yards per play when their QB has scrambled this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 4.4.

The Steelers have an average drive start position from the 33.0 yard line this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 28.2.

The Steelers had an average drive start position from the 43.4 yard line in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 29.5.

The Steelers have targeted WRs 38% of the time (93 Pass Attempts/245 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers