Saints vs Seahawks Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 21, 2025, 10:14 AM

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(AP Photo/Scott Eklund)

The Seahawks are -7.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New Orleans Saints (0-2-0) visit Lumen Field to take on the Seattle Seahawks (1-1-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Seattle, WA.

The Seahawks are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Seahawks Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Seahawks Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+7.5 -110	41.5 -110	310
Seahawks	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400

Saints vs. Seahawks Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Seahawks will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Seahawks Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 75.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 76% ROI)
Devaughn Vele has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Devaughn Vele has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Seahawks players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Seahawks Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Kenneth Walker III has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 68% ROI)
Kenneth Walker III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Zach Charbonnet has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 43% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.40 Units / 52% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 20% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.30 Units / 18% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 49% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.75 Units / 42% ROI)

Seahawks Best Bets:

The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.97 Units / 27% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.08 Units / 16% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
The Seattle Seahawks have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.24 Units / 17% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 0-2 (-2.2 Units / -100% ROI).

Saints are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
Saints are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Saints are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / ROI

Seahawks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Seahawks are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Seahawks are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 32.5% ROI
Seahawks are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Seahawks are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Seattle Seahawks

The Saints were winless (0-8) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .389.

The Saints were winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .152.

The Saints are winless (0-10) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .256.

The Saints are winless (0-5) when converting less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .285.

Seattle Seahawks: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Seahawks are 4-1 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2024 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed an average of 139.5 rushing yards per game since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Seahawks were 7-1 (.875) on the road last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .476.

The Seahawks are winless (0-6) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .192.

The Seahawks were 7-3 (.700) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — 10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .567.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have run just 11.2% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2024 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed their opponent to run just 12.2% of plays in the red zone since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Seahawks have thrown for 4,824 passing yards in 19 games (253.9 YPG) since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 234.3 passing yards per game since the 2024 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of just 11.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Seahawks defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 10.2% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Saints have been successful on just 38.6% of pass attempts with motion since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Seahawks have pressured opposing QBs on 27.6% of pass attempts against motion since the 2024 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of just 31.0% in the second half since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Seahawks defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 33.6% in the second half since the 2024 season — 4th-best in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have averaged 0.04 epa per play against open coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.45.

The Saints have converted late downs on just 12 of 314 plays (4%) with 7-10 yards to go since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6%.

The Saints ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Saints have converted first downs on just 18 of 117 plays (15%) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

Seattle Seahawks Offense: Important Stats

The Seahawks started 7 drives inside opposing territory last season — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

The Seahawks ran successful plays on 31% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Seahawks ran 8% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Seahawks ran 36% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Saints defense tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 23 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in Week 2 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Saints defense allowed successful plays on 55% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Saints defense have allowed 8.6 yards per play with tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.7.

Seattle Seahawks Defense: Important Stats

The Seahawks defense has pressured opposing QBs on 41% of pass attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

Offenses facing the Seahawks targeted WRs 34% of the time (24 Pass Attempts/70 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

Offenses facing the Seahawks targeted RBs 30% of the time (21 Pass Attempts/70 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Seahawks defense has 4 interceptions this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

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