Saints vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 30, 2025, 9:56 AM

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A Miami Dolphins football helmet sits on the grass during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Dolphins are -6 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (2-9-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (4-7-0) on Nov. 30. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Saints vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+6 -110	41.5 -110	225
Dolphins	-6 -110	41.5 -110	-275

Saints vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 70.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Bets Today

Ollie Gordon II has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 66% ROI)
Jaylen Waddle has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ollie Gordon II has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 80% ROI)
Devon Achane has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kevin Austin Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 82% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 18% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 36% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 21% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 35% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 21% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.00 Units / 9% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 away games (+1.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-8 (-5.85 Units / -48.15% ROI).

Saints are 2-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -53.25% ROI
Saints are 3-8 when betting the Over for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI
Saints are 8-3 when betting the Under for +4.7 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 6-5 (+0.5 Units / 4.1% ROI).

Dolphins are 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 5.6% ROI
Dolphins are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 13.22% ROI
Dolphins are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -21.49% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have averaged -0.96 epa per play against tight coverage this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.51.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.45.

The Dolphins have scored 1.9 points per Red Zone drive since Week 9 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 4.2.

The Dolphins have run successful plays on 36% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Dolphins are winless (0-3) vs top 10 pass offenses this season They play the Saints in Week 13 (Ranks 20th in passing offense).

The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Dolphins are 1-6 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-5th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .370.

The Dolphins are 1-4 (.200) on the road this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .444.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins