Saints vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Dec 07, 2025, 9:49 AM

min read

FILE - a general view of Raymond James Stadium during an NFL football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray, FIle)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Buccaneers are -8.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New Orleans Saints (2-10-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5-0) on Dec. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Buccaneers vs Saints & all NFL games with BetMGM

Saints vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+8.5 -110	42.5 -105	350
Buccaneers	-8.5 -110	42.5 -115	-450

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 79.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 53.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Buccaneers vs Saints and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Alvin Kamara has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
Kevin Austin Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 82% ROI)
Chris Olave has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 98% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Longest Rush Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 58% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Rachaad White has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Rachaad White has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Sterling Shepard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.80 Units / 19% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.00 Units / 10% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 11 of their last 20 games (+2.00 Units / 9% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+1.29 Units / 7% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 28% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.70 Units / 26% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.80 Units / 20% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 4-8 (-4.85 Units / -36.6% ROI).

Saints are 2-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -56.97% ROI
Saints are 3-9 when betting the Over for -6.9 Units / -52.27% ROI
Saints are 9-3 when betting the Under for +5.7 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-7 (-2.8 Units / -21.21% ROI).

Buccaneers are 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.4 Units / 13.56% ROI
Buccaneers are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buccaneers are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers defense blitzed on 25% of plays last season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Buccaneers defense did not allow a first down on any of their opponents’ 11 rush attempts on 3rd and long last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 50.0 on contested throws (61 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 73.8.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a fourth down conversion rate of 94% in short yardage situations last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Saints were winless (0-6) vs top 10 run defenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .300.

The Saints were winless (0-7) whe trailing at the end of the first half last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .243.

The Saints were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .368.

The Saints were 2-6 (.250) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers