Saints vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

A Buffalo Bills helmet sits on the turf next to a couple of footballs prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 26, 2022, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)
(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)
  • The Bills are -16 point favorites vs the Saints
  • Total (Over/Under): 48 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The New Orleans Saints (0-3-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-0-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -16 (-110).

The Saints vs. Bills Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Saints+16 -11048 -110900
Bills -16 -11048 -110-1600

Saints vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 90.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 74.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

  • Juwan Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Juwan Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Spencer Rattler has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Spencer Rattler has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rashid Shaheed has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.30 Units / 64% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Ty Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Elijah Moore has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.40 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 16 games (+11.02 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.27 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

  • Saints are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Saints are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Saints are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Bills are 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 26.91% ROI
  • Bills are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Bills are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Saints have averaged just 5.8 yards per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Saints have averaged 0.20 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.

The Saints have averaged just 4.8 yards per play in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 11% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Bills have not converted a late down on 42 plays (0%) in close and late situations since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills have scored 10 TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 6.8 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Bills have rushed for 39 TDs since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have not converted a late down on 42 plays (0%) in close and late situations since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills have scored 10 TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 6.8 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Bills have rushed for 39 TDs since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

The Saints have averaged just 5.8 yards per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Saints have averaged 0.20 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.

The Saints have averaged just 4.8 yards per play in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 11% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints have averaged just 5.8 yards per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Saints have averaged 0.20 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.

The Saints have averaged just 4.8 yards per play in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 11% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills have not converted a late down on 42 plays (0%) in close and late situations since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills have scored 10 TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 6.8 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Bills have rushed for 39 TDs since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints have averaged just 5.8 yards per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.1.

The Saints have averaged 0.20 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.

The Saints have averaged just 4.8 yards per play in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 11% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills have not converted a late down on 42 plays (0%) in close and late situations since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%.

The Bills have scored 10 TDs in the red zone this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Bills have averaged 6.8 yards per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.

The Bills have rushed for 39 TDs since the 2024 season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.