Saints vs Bears Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 15, 2025, 6:47 PM

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Chicago Bears fans cheer during the first half of an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Chicago. The Bears defeated the Panthers 36-10. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

The Bears are -5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 47 points
Watch this game on FOX

The New Orleans Saints (1-5-0) visit Soldier Field to take on the Chicago Bears (3-2-0) on Oct. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Chicago, IL.

The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-105).

The Saints vs. Bears Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Bears Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+5 -115	47 -110	195
Bears	-5 -105	47 -110	-235

Saints vs. Bears Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 66.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Bears Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Spencer Rattler has hit the Interceptions Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 60% ROI)
Rashid Shaheed has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.35 Units / 93% ROI)
Blake Grupe has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Devaughn Vele has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bears players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Best Bets Today

Caleb Williams has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.55 Units / 51% ROI)
Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
D’Andre Swift has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
D’Andre Swift has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Jake Moody has hit the Field Goals Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.10 Units / 46% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.95 Units / 20% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.33 Units / 8% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

The Chicago Bears have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 19% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 38% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 33% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.15 Units / 11% ROI)
The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.70 Units / 17% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 2-4 (-2.45 Units / -36.84% ROI).

Saints are 1-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -62.99% ROI
Saints are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
Saints are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears are 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).

Bears are 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.2 Units / 43.14% ROI
Bears are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 34.55% ROI
Bears are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -41.82% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 10% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Saints have a third down conversion rate of 0% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Saints have averaged 0.19 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.41.

The Saints have converted late downs on just 5 of 103 plays (5%) with 4-6 yards to go this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Bears have run 5% of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Bears have averaged -0.23 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2024 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

The Bears have run successful plays on 32% of pass attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Bears have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears