Ravens vs. Steelers: NFL Week 14 Odds, Prediction

Baltimore can build upon its AFC North advantage on Sunday when it hosts the Steelers. 

Both teams experienced horrific results in Week 13. The Ravens lost outright as home favorites against the Bengals, scoring only 14 points. 

The loss briefly moved Pittsburgh into first place. But Mike Tomlin’s team went out on Sunday and lost 26-7 to the Bills, including a -23 differential in the second half. 

Bet on Ravens vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Ravens vs. Steelers: NFL Week 14 Odds

Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction

Based on Pittsburgh’s inability to stop the run and Baltimore’s rushing success vs Pittsburgh last season, my Ravens vs Steelers prediction is the Baltimore Ravens Spread (-5.5, -110). 

I’m sure there are a bunch of trends pointing to the Steelers as a live dog. The fact remains that, from a matchup standpoint, Pittsburgh should struggle in this game. 

James Cook rushed for 144 yards against the Steelers. As a team, Buffalo notched 249 rushing yards on five yards per rush attempt. 

Now the Steelers defense, which could play without Patrick Queen, has to face Derrick Henry. In his last two outings against Pittsburgh, Henry has rushed for 162 and 186 yards. 

Baltimore enters Week 14 ranked ninth in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. On Sunday, they get a Pittsburgh defense which sits ninth on defense. 

However, only Buffalo and Minnesota have proven higher variance defenses this season. 

Additionally, Baltimore gets extra time to prepare for a Steelers defense that faced 74 plays on Sunday. If the unit turns around and shows up, I’ll tip my hat to them. 

Plus, Baltimore’s blowout loss against the Bengals is a bit misleading. Baltimore won the yards per play battle and had two touchdowns erased by a turnover or penalty. 

If those 14 points appear on the board, we likely view Baltimore much differently entering this game. 

That’s likely contributing to the public’s early obsession with Pittsburgh. As of Monday afternoon, 66% of bets and 75% of the money are backing Pittsburgh +5.5. 

Since last season, teams getting over 60% of tickets against a previous favorite off a loss by 10 or more are 2-15 ATS. Since 2010: 28-34-1 ATS. 

Lastly, Pittsburgh’s biggest offensive advantage is mitigated here. The Steelers rank 12th in rush offense DVOA, but Baltimore ranks 11th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Since Week 6, Baltimore ranks fifth in defensive success rate, including third since Week 8. 

If Baltimore moves the ball on the ground and stays ahead of schedule, I don’t trust Aaron Rodgers to lead a backdoor cover. 

For those reasons, I predict Baltimore covers the spread on Sunday. 

Betting Ravens vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting

Check back later in the week for Ravens vs Steelers public betting data.