- The Ravens are a three-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The Patriots have won each of their last six road games.
- My Ravens vs Patriots prediction is for the Baltimore Ravens (-3) to cover.
New England tries to avoid a second straight defeat as road dogs to the Ravens on SNF.Â
The Patriots raced out to a 21-0 lead over the Bills as home underdogs on Sunday. However, a powerhouse Josh Allen second half led to a 35-31 defeat for New England.Â
Baltimore won 24-0 against the Bengals on Sunday. With a Steelers loss on MNF, Baltimore would reclaim the AFC North lead.Â
Bet on Ravens vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Ravens vs. Patriots: NFL Week 16 Odds
Ravens vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on New England’s declining rush defense and Baltimore’s improving defensive record, my Ravens vs Patriots prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3, -110).Â
Since Milton Williams sustained an injury, the Patriots defense has taken a dip. Entering Week 16, New England has fallen to 18th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
That’s going to present a problem against Baltimore. The Ravens enter this matchup ranked eighth in rush offense DVOA, albeit against a pretty easy defensive schedule.Â
Plus, for all of Lamar Jackson’s issues this season, he’s shown flashes against man-heavy coverage units.Â
Jackson ranks ninth in DVOA against man coverage, which New England runs at one of the league’s highest rates.Â
That leads me to believe Baltimore could have its way on offense. Although the unit has struggled at home of late, it’s largely due to red zone inefficiencies.Â
Against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Baltimore finished 3-for-7 in red zone touchdown rate. Just against the Steelers – another poor run defense – Baltimore finished 2-for-6.Â
While I enter the game concerned about Baltimore’s defense, one other factor swings me to the Ravens.Â
Early in the week, public bettors are all over the Patriots. As of Monday morning, 69% of bets placed and 92% of money wagered are on the Patriots to cover the spread.Â
Since 2016, non-divisional dogs receiving over 58% of bets priced between +2 and +3 are 9-24-3 ATS, assuming the team closed as an underdog in its last game.Â
Just over the last two years: 3-12-1 ATS. Given those factors, I predict the Ravens cover the spread on SNF.Â
Betting Ravens vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots (+3) | 73% | 30% |
| Packers (-3) | 27% | 70% |
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