- The Ravens are a 12.5-point home favorite against the Browns.
- The Browns have lost each of their last eight road games.
- My Ravens vs Browns prediction is for the Browns to cover the spread.
After an emotional loss on Sunday Night Football, the Ravens return home to face the Cleveland Browns.Â
Baltimore, despite 40 points and over 230 rushing yards, lost to the Bills on Sunday. It marked the eighth time since 2021 the Ravens lost with a 90% win probability at one point.Â
Cleveland also fell in Week 1 as home underdogs to Cincinnati. However, in losing by only a point, the Browns covered the spread as 5.5-point home dogs.Â
Bet on Ravens vs. Browns and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Ravens vs. Browns: NFL Week 2 Odds
Ravens vs. Browns Prediction
Monday, September 8
Based on the disadvantageous travel spot for the Ravens and Cleveland’s strong defensive record, my Ravens vs Browns prediction is the Browns Spread (+12.5, -110).Â
It’s a brutal spot for the Ravens as big home favorites off of Sunday Night Football. That said, I want to see if the Browns qualify as a public underdog.Â
On paper, it’s a massive number for the Ravens to cover. When these teams played in Week 18 last year, Baltimore covered a 20-point spread against the Bailey Zappe-led Browns.Â
Joe Flacco is not Bailey Zappe. Albeit in a limited sample, Flacco recorded a 3-1 ATS record when oddsmakers listed him at +10 or higher.Â
Of slight concern is the fact that Lamar Jackson excels as a big favorite within the AFC North.Â
He’s 5-1 ATS at -9.5 or higher against the division. However, last year’s game against the Browns marked the first time he closed north of that figure since 2021.Â
What about John Harbaugh? The Super Bowl winner posted a 7-6 ATS against the same benchmark.Â
From a matchup standpoint, perhaps it’s not crazy to think Cleveland’s defense holds up.Â
Against a decent Bengals offense – based on 2024 ratings – Cleveland ranked eighth in defensive DVOA for the week, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
If Cleveland’s defense shows up again, I like the visitors to stay within this number. Based on historical precedent, the Browns offer some viability as a pup.Â
Since 2003, dogs at +9.5 or higher that missed the postseason the prior year are 32-9-2 (78%) ATS, assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s win/loss streak is -1 (one loss)
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between -38 and -1
- The underdog’s game number falls between 2 and 8
One concern: that system works better outside a divisional game. Dogs outside the division are 20-3-0 ATS compared to 12-6-2 within the division.Â
Betting Ravens vs. Browns: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 46% | 34% | 66% | 25% |
| Ravens | 54% | 66% | 34% | 75% |
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