- The Rams are a 3-point home favorite against the Texans.
- The Texans have lost 19 straight games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
- My Rams vs. Texans prediction is for the Rams to cover the spread.
A Week 1 showcase between two division winners sees the Rams host the Texans.Â
Los Angeles surged toward the end of 2024. After a 1-4 start, the Rams won nine of the last 12 to claim the NFC West.Â
Houston captured the AFC South for a second straight year. Their 10-7 record stemmed from a strong defense, which finished third in DVOA for the season, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
Bet on Rams vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Rams vs Texans: NFL Week 1 Odds
- Date: Sunday, September 7
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
Rams vs Texans Prediction
Based on the Rams’ success against the league’s worst offenses last season, my Rams vs. Texans prediction is the Rams Spread (-3, -105).Â
I rate this game the hardest to figure out among the entire Week 1 slate.Â
Houston’s offense took a dive in 2024 compared to 2023. After ranking 14th in offensive DVOA, the Texans dropped to 26th in 2024.Â
Injuries did play a role in that – Houston lost the eighth-most adjusted games on offense.Â
But the same can be said for the Rams. Los Angeles lost more adjusted games to injury on offense than only five teams.Â
Despite that fact, the Rams ranked seventh in weighted offensive DVOA. Houston finished 26th in that category, which places more emphasis on the back end of the season.Â
If Houston fails to drastically improve that rating, it opens the door for Los Angeles to cover a short number.Â
Last season, the Rams played seven games against teams 19th or worse in weighted offensive DVOA. That sample includes a meaningless Week 18 game against Seattle.Â
Excluding the finale, Los Angeles finished 6-1 in such games. The lone loss came at Chicago with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp out.Â
The Rams also own an edge in terms of overall performances later in the season.Â
By total weighted DVOA, Sean McVay’s side ranked ninth in the league. Houston finished 17th by the same metric.Â
Bettors should consider one final element with this game. Historically, it’s wise to take the favorite in games featuring two playoff teams.Â
Since 2004, Week 1 favorites that made the playoffs are 32-21-1 ATS against a dog that also made the playoffs.Â
Betting Rams vs Texans: NFL Public Betting
Data is reflective as of Tuesday, September 2.
| Team | Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans (+3) | 32% | 38% | 64% | 64% |
| Rams (-3) | 68% | 62% | 36% | 36% |
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