Raiders vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

Following a Week 10 bye, the Cowboys return to action on Monday Night Football against the Raiders. 

Dallas last fell as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals. It spurred action from the team at the trade deadline, with Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams moving to Dallas. 

The Raiders fell 10-7 last Thursday against Denver, easily covering as 9.5-point dogs. Now, they’ll try to end a three-game losing streak and notch a second home win. 

Bet on Raiders vs. Cowboys and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Raiders vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 11 Odds

Raiders vs. Cowboys Prediction

Based on Dallas’ potential defensive improvement and their recent success pressuring the quarterback, my Raiders vs Cowboys prediction is the Cowboys Spread (-3.5, -105). 

I’m slightly worried about this spread sitting north of a key number. Plus, Las Vegas has played a lot of fluky games that have landed inside the number. 

Anyone who suffered through Broncos vs Raiders saw Geno Smith clearly playing at less than 100%. That, paired with an injury to Jackson Powers-Johnson, could put Las Vegas in trouble. 

The biggest knock against Dallas is the lack of any defense. Entering this game, the team ranks 31st in defensive DVOA – 30th against the pass, 29th against the run. 

Oddly, despite Dallas ranking 29th in rush defense DVOA, the team sits seventh in ESPN’s run-stop win rate metric. 

The Raiders offense is not well-equipped to take on Dallas’ defensive weaknesses. Vegas ranks 30th in pass offense DVOA and 32nd in rush offense DVOA. 

That said, the matchup I want to focus on here is the Cowboys ground game against Vegas’ rush defense. 

Dallas ranks 10th in rush offense DVOA. Of slight concern: Chicago and Jacksonville sit in eighth and ninth. Las Vegas covered this number in both of those games at home. 

However, Jacksonville rushed for 151 yards against this Raiders defense. This season, Dallas is 3-0 SU when clearing 135 yards on the ground. 

If the Raiders can’t contain Dallas’ rushing game, it puts an onus on Smith to cover this number. 

Is there a world where Dallas’ defense sees no improvement? Of course. Additionally, Dallas’ extra rest is slightly mitigated with the Raiders playing off TNF.

Ultimately, it’s the Cowboys or nothing in this spot, but I’d wait to see if this drops back down to -3. 

Betting Raiders vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting

Check back later in the week for Raiders vs Cowboys public betting data and insights.