Raiders vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

BetMGM Betting Dec 19, 2025, 6:00 PM

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A detail view of a Houston Texans helmet on the sideline prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

(AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

The Texans are -14.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 38 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (9-5-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Raiders vs. Texans Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Raiders vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 76.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Raiders vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 53.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

Ashton Jeanty has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 87% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
Raheem Mostert has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
Ashton Jeanty has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 71% ROI)
Tre Tucker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.15 Units / 45% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 52% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.40 Units / 39% ROI)
Woody Marks has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Nico Collins has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 29% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.85 Units / 19% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 40% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.20 Units / 11% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 away games (+1.50 Units / 18% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.38 Units / 20% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 5-9 (-5 Units / -32.26% ROI).

Raiders are 2-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -67.71% ROI
Raiders are 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI
Raiders are 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 8-6 (+1.35 Units / 8.74% ROI).

Texans are 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 22.09% ROI
Texans are 4-9 when betting the Over for -5.9 Units / -38.31% ROI
Texans are 9-4 when betting the Under for +4.6 Units / 29.87% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans defense has allowed scores on 16% of opponent drives (8/51) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

Only 37% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 21% of plays with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception this season — 10th-worst in NFL. The Texans have intercepted 16 passes this season — T-4th-most in NFL.

The Raiders are 1-6 (.143) at home this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .544.

The Raiders are 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .483.

The Raiders are winless (0-3) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans