- The Patriots are -2.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Las Vegas Raiders (0-0-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (0-0-0) on Sep. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.
The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-118).
The Raiders vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Raiders vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Raiders | +2.5 -102 | 43.5 -110 | +115 |
| Patriots | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -140 |
Raiders vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 63.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Raiders vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today
- Geno Smith has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 70% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Raiders Best Bets:
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 3Q Spread in their last 4 away games (+4.30 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+3.20 Units / 42% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.30 Units / 56% ROI)
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Raiders were 0-3 (-3.35 Units / -100% ROI).
- Raiders are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -63.55% ROI
- Raiders are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.95% ROI
- Raiders are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.28 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Patriots were 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Patriots are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 21.97% ROI
- Patriots are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI
- Patriots are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.25 Units / -37.31% ROI
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Raiders were 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Raiders were winless (0-9) when allowing 27 or more points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.
The Raiders were 1-9 (.100) when losing at least one fumble last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .379.
The Raiders are winless (0-9) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots are winless (0-5) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .415.
Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots had a third down conversion rate of just 8.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Raiders defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 6.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
Patriots TEs averaged 9.4 targets per game last season — 5th-highest in NFL. The Raiders allowed 6.0 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Patriots TEs had 113 receptions in 17 games (6.6 per game) last season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Raiders allowed 6.0 receptions per game to TEs last season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
The Raiders had a third down conversion rate of just 6.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — worst in NFL. The Patriots defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 8.7% on 3rd and 10+ YTG last season — best in NFL.
The Raiders threw the ball 10 yards or less 74.8% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Patriots allowed 6.7 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats
The Raiders had a third down conversion rate of 7% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Raiders ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Raiders are averaging 15.5 drives per TD in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Raiders ran successful plays on 35% of rush attempts last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots averaged just 0.5 yards per play on first drive of the game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Patriots went three and out on 59% of their drives in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Patriots targeted WRs 28% of the time (18 Pass Attempts/65 plays) in the red zone last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 54%.
The Patriots started 16 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-most in NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats
The Raiders defense allowed successful plays on 56% of pass attempts open coverage last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
The Raiders defense allowed 0.19 epa per play against play action passes last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Raiders defense have allowed just 4.1 yards per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
Offenses facing the Raiders threw deep balls on just 9% of pass attempts (49/561) last season — T-3rd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 11%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed -0.33 epa per play on contested throws last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Patriots defense allowed -0.97 epa per play on contested throws in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Patriots defense allowed 0.27 epa per play against play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
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- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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