- The Commanders are -3.5 point favorites vs the Raiders
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Las Vegas Raiders (1-1-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (1-1-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Landover, MD.
The Commanders are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-102).
The Raiders vs. Commanders Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Raiders vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Raiders | +3.5 -118 | 44 -110 | 150 |
| Commanders | -3.5 -102 | 44 -110 | -185 |
Raiders vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Commanders will win this game with 72.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Raiders vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 72.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Geno Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tre Tucker has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- Daniel Carlson has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+4.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Raiders Best Bets:
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+3.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+3.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.95 Units / 16% ROI)
Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Raiders are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 10% ROI
- Raiders are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Raiders are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Commanders are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Commanders are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Commanders are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Raiders were 1-9 (.100) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Raiders were winless (0-9) when allowing 27 or more points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .183.
The Raiders were 1-12 (.077) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.
The Raiders are 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .474.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders
The Commanders are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2024 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 32 times since the 2024 season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Commanders were 7-2 (.778) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays last season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.
The Commanders were 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — 6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .593.
The Commanders were 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble last season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.
Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have scored on 28.6% of their drives this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Raiders defense has allowed scores on 30.4% of opponent drives this season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Commanders are 10-3 (.769) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2024 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 32 times since the 2024 season — 3rd-most in NFL.
The Commanders have been successful on 52.4% of plays they have run against a light rush since the 2024 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed a success rate of 59.1% with a light rush since the 2024 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Raiders have been successful on just 28.6% of rush attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed a success rate of just 32.0% on rush attempts against motion this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Raiders have been successful on just 38.9% of plays they have run this season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Commanders have allowed a success rate of just 38.2% this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Raiders have a third down conversion rate of just 11.6% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2024 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Commanders defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 11.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG since the 2024 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats
The Raiders have averaged -1.38 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.51.
The Raiders have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Raiders have 12 receptions for 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Raiders faced a blitz 20% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have run successful plays on 76% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 78% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Commanders ran successful plays on 10% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Commanders have run successful plays on 58% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats
The Raiders defense have allowed just 3.9 yards per play on contested throws since the 2024 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
The Raiders defense allowed just 4.2 yards per play on contested throws last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.3.
The Raiders defense has allowed first downs on 20% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Raiders defense has not allowed scores on any opponent drives (6 drives) in close and late situations since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 13.5 when the opposing QB has scrambled (48 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 63.6.
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 56% of opponent drives (43/77) in the 2nd half last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Commanders defense allowed a passer rating of just 10.5 when the opposing QB was scrambling (43 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 64.8.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 53% of opponent drives (47/88) in the 2nd half since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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