Raiders vs Colts Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Oct 01, 2025, 11:04 AM

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A general overall interior view of Lucas Oil Stadium as Chicago Bears take on the Indianapolis Colts during an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024, in Indianapolis. The Colts defeated the Bears 21-16. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

(AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

The Colts are -7 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 48 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Las Vegas Raiders (1-3-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (3-1-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Raiders vs. Colts Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Raiders vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Raiders	+7 -115	48 -110	240
Colts	-7 -105	48 -110	-300

Raiders vs. Colts Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Colts will win this game with 80.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Raiders vs Colts Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Raiders will cover the spread with 68.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Raiders players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Bets Today

Tre Tucker has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Geno Smith has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Tre Tucker has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Jakobi Meyers has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today

Spencer Shrader has hit the Field Goals Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Alec Pierce has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Daniel Jones has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 22% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+4.05 Units / 44% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.85 Units / 23% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+2.55 Units / 31% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.20 Units / 19% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.30 Units / 20% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 20% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 1-3 (-2.4 Units / -53.33% ROI).

Raiders are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.15 Units / -49.43% ROI
Raiders are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Raiders are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Colts are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 35.96% ROI
Colts are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Colts are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Raiders have run successful plays on 28% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Raiders have averaged -1.18 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Raiders have run 28% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Raiders have faced a blitz 19% of the time since the 2024 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

No plays were run against the Colts were in Colts territory in the 1st quarter this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of just 33.7 on 3rd and short (32 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 91.2.

Offenses facing the Colts have thrown deep balls on just 4% of pass attempts (4/93) on 3rd and long since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Colts defense has allowed 10.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (90 yards / 9 touches) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

Additional Matchup Notes for Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts