Steelers Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Steelers win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Despite entering the 2024 season as a major negative regression candidate, Mike Tomlin guided the Steelers to another winning season and playoff appearance. 

Ultimately, the Steelers received a blowout loss in the opening round against the Ravens. Now, they enter the 2025 season with major uncertainty at quarterback. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Pittsburgh’s 2025 win total and my Steelers win total prediction. 

Steelers Win Total Odds

The Steelers’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

After signing Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh saw some movement in its win total odds. Currently, the Steelers are to win nine or more games.

Comparatively, oddsmakers price Pittsburgh at to finish with eight or fewer wins.

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC North teams:

• Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 Wins
• Cincinnati Bengals: 9.5 Wins
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Wins
• Cleveland Browns: 4.5 Wins

Steelers 2025 Win Total Prediction

Based on implied probability, the Steelers are predicted to have over 8.5 wins with 54.5% confidence. My Steelers win total prediction is to live bet the under after Week 6, based on Pittsburgh’s schedule construction. 

BET: Steelers Over 8.5 Wins @ -200

BET: Steelers Under 8.5 Wins @ +165  

What should not go unnoticed about Pittsburgh’s 2025 schedule is how difficult it will play for the defense. 

Last season, the Steelers finished eighth in defensive DVOA against the 10th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

This season, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of offenses based on 2024 DVOA ratings. Of Pittsburgh’s 17 games, seven come against teams fifth or better last year in offense. 

Last season, Pittsburgh’s defense wasn’t so much good as it was opportunistic. Loads of takeaways propped up a defense that easily let teams move down the field. 

On plays INCLUDING turnovers, the Steelers ranked ninth in defensive EPA per play and 20th in defensive success rate. 

But on plays EXCLUDING turnovers, Pittsburgh drops to 18th and 22nd, respectively. 

If the turnovers dry up, Tomlin’s defense opens the door to relying on one of the league’s worst offenses. 

Trading George Pickens leaves summer acquisition D.K. Metcalf as the only decent skill player. Plus, Najee Harris departed in free agency along with Dan Moore Jr. on the offensive line. 

Even if Rogers arrives, is this an offense bettors should trust? I certainly don’t carry much faith. 

That said, the way the schedule is organized offers bettors a chance to wait and potentially take an under on a better number. 

For the first five games, the Steelers can likely rely on the defense. Those five games came against five teams that all finished 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. 

The schedule toughens for the defense after Week 6 against Cleveland, following a Week 5 bye. 

Just from Week 7 to Week 11, the Steelers play four games against teams that finished 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including both games against Cincinnati. 

By that point, I’m not sure the defense can play well enough to prop up the offense. 

As a result, I’m passing on taking a preseason position and will reconsider after Week 6. 

Most Wins in Steelers History

The Steelers’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 15. Pittsburgh posted a 15-1 record in 2004.

Fewest Wins in Steelers History

The Steelers’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 1969, the Steelers posted a 1-13 record.