- The Patriots are a 1.5-point home underdog against the Steelers.
- The Patriots have lost each of their last 11 games following a win.
- My Patriots vs Steelers prediction is the Steelers 1H Moneyline (-120).
The Patriots look to extend momentum from a Week 2 win over Miami as home dogs to the Steelers.Â
A kickoff return touchdown proved the difference for New England against Miami. Through two games, Mike Vrabel’s team sits at 1-1 SU & ATS.Â
The Steelers lost outright as home favorites against the Seahawks in Week 2. The loss dropped Mike Tomlin’s side to 1-1 with a pair of concerning defensive performances.Â
Bet on Patriots vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Patriots vs. Steelers: NFL Week 3 Odds
Patriots vs. Steelers Prediction
Based on the success of road favorites in the first half of a loss as favorites, my Patriots vs Steelers prediction is the Steelers 1H Moneyline (-120).Â
If a silver lining exists to Pittsburgh’s Week 2 performance, it’s the first-half start against Seattle.Â
Pittsburgh jumped out to a 14-7 halftime advantage before a three-point second half. Now, bettors find the Steelers in a buy-low spot against a Patriots team off a win.Â
Historically, teams like the Steelers – off a loss as favorites – tend to bounce back in the next first half.Â
Since 2005, road teams at either -3.5 or -0.5 in the first half are 63-32 ATS in the first half, assuming two factors:
- The team’s previous game margin falls between -15 and -3
- The previous game the team was the favorite
Just at -0.5 in the first half: 38-25 ATS.Â
One concern exists with this prediction: Mike Vrabel excels in the first half as an underdog.Â
In his coaching career, Vrabel posted a 33-21 ATS record in the first half as a market pup. At +0.5 or +1.5, he finished 14-7 ATS in the first half.Â
Additionally, I don’t know whether I can place trust in the Steelers defense just yet.Â
On paper, it’s a great matchup. Pittsburgh carries strength along the defensive line, and the Patriots offensive line is still a work in progress.Â
However, the Steelers line struggled against two bad units already this season.Â
Due to those factors, my overall confidence in Pittsburgh starting fast rests solely on the aforementioned system.Â
Betting Patriots vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 64% | 44% | 48% | 54% |
| Patriots | 36% | 56% | 52% | 46% |
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