Patriots vs. Jets: NFL Week 11 Odds, Prediction

New England will go for its eighth straight outright win when it hosts the Jets on TNF. 

The Patriots won and covered as 2.5-point road dogs in Tampa Bay on Sunday. The win vaulted Mike Vrabel’s team to 8-2 on the year and earned New England a 1.5-game lead in the AFC East. 

New York improved to 2-7 SU with a 27-20 win over the Browns on Sunday. Driving the success – a pair of special teams touchdowns in the first half

Bet on Patriots vs. Jets and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Patriots vs. Jets: NFL Week 11 Odds

Patriots vs. Jets Prediction

Based on New England’s matchup advantages and the opportunity to sell New York off a lucky win, my Patriots vs Jets prediction is the Patriots Spread (-11.5, -110). 

The only concern here is that it’s a short rest for New England after a road game. That, along with this spread sitting above a few key numbers, is likely to keep me off the game. 

That said, the matchup advantages are glaring for New England. 

Excluding Week 10, New England owns the following DVOA ranks, per ftnfantasy.com: 

• Pass Offense: 3rd
• Rush Offense: 27th
• Pass Defense: 28th
• Rush Defense: 4th

How do the Jets stack up? Aaron Glenn’s team carries the following ranks in the corresponding categories: 31st, 12th, 28th, 16th. 

Essentially, it’s strength on weakness on offense and strength on strength on defense. Plus, the Patriots are the hardest pass offense the Jets will have faced all season! 

The Jets have played two games this season against top-13 pass offense DVOA units. They allowed 30 or more points in both games while losing by 15 and 20 points (vs. Dallas, Buffalo). 

New England has failed to cover this number twice at home. The first came in Week 1 against Las Vegas, which entered Week 10 ranked 15th in pass defense DVOA. 

The second came against the Falcons, which sat fifth entering Week 10. 

Without Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter, I’m not sure how the Jets defense gets stops in this game. 

That means, essentially, the game comes down to whether you trust Justin Fields to find the back door. On Sunday, he passed for only 54 yards. 

As a whole, the offense generated a mere 169 yards. That is an unsustainable formula for success. 

Given those advantages, it’s the Patriots or nothing for me on Thursday. 

Betting Patriots vs. Jets: NFL Public Betting

Check back later in the week for Patriots vs Jets public betting data and insights.