- The Patriots are predicted to be a one-point home underdog against the Bills.
- Buffalo owns a perfect 7-0 record when recording under 1.5 offensive turnovers.
- My Patriots vs Bills prediction is the New England Patriots Moneyline (-105).
Off a Week 14 bye, the Patriots will welcome the Bills to Foxborough for a crucial AFC East matchup.
A win by New England on Sunday would seal the division title. Mike Vrabel’s team would earn a 12th win and own the tiebreakers over Buffalo, even if the team lost out afterward.Â
Buffalo enters Sunday’s game off a 39-34 win against Cincinnati. Turnovers helped the Bills come from behind with Josh Allen leading a 28-13 second half for the hosts.Â
Bet on Patriots vs. Bills and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Patriots vs. Bills: NFL Week 15 Odds
Patriots vs. Bills Prediction
Based on New England’s extra rest and Josh Allen’s struggles against man coverage, my Patriots vs Bills prediction is the New England Patriots Moneyline (-105).Â
Predicting an outcome here is difficult as the game depends on unpredictable factors.Â
Buffalo is 7-0 this year when the offense records fewer than 1.5 turnovers. Specific to Josh Allen, the Bills are undefeated this year when he avoids throwing an interception (6-0).Â
New England hasn’t forced two or more turnovers on defense since Week 8. I also worry about Milton Williams’ absence against a good Bills rushing attack.Â
That said, there are two concerns with Buffalo. First, the 39-34 win against Cincinnati is slightly misleading.Â
Buffalo scored a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter. On the next drive, the defense intercepted Joe Burrow once again, scoring six plays later.Â
If Buffalo starts slow, it’s unlikely they come from behind against New England. This season, Allen has struggled to move the ball against man-heavy coverage schemes.Â
Allen ranks 24th of 32nd in DVOA against man coverage this season. By EPA per play, Allen ranks 14th of 32nd.Â
But the reigning MVP has thrown six interceptions against man coverage this year. Against zone coverage, he has tossed only four.Â
Allen produced only one turnover-worthy play when these teams last met. However, he notched at least two in three of his previous four outings.Â
Given those factors, it’s the Patriots or nothing on Sunday. However, the missing personnel for New England gives me some pause, even with extra rest.Â
Betting Patriots vs. Bills: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money |
|---|---|---|
| Bills (-1) | 55% | 81% |
| Patriots (+1) | 45% | 19% |
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