- The Vikings are -1.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 38.5 points
The New England Patriots (1-0-0) visit U.S. Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Vikings (1-0-0) on Aug. 16. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
The – are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at ().
The Patriots vs. Vikings Over/Under is total points for the game.
Bet now on Vikings vs Patriots & all NFL games with BetMGM
Patriots vs. Vikings Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | |||
| Vikings |
Patriots vs. Vikings Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 75.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Vikings Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 75.6% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Vikings vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Vikings players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vikings Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 72% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 81% ROI)
Vikings Best Bets:
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+12.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.49 Units / 20% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Patriots were ( Units / ROI).
- Patriots are 4-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -19.41% ROI
- Patriots are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
- Patriots are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / ROI
Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last NFL season, the Vikings were ( Units / ROI).
- Vikings are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 32.79% ROI
- Vikings are 7-11 when betting the Over for -5.1 Units / -25.76% ROI
- Vikings are 11-7 when betting the Under for +3.3 Units / 16.67% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings
The Patriots were 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings intercepted 24 passes last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .542.
The Patriots are winless (0-5) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.
Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Vikings were 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Patriots averaged just 1.6 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Vikings were 2-1 (.667) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times last season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .249.
The Vikings were undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .553.
The Vikings were undefeated (10-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .611.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings
Vikings WRs were targeted 28 times inside the 10 yardline last season — 3rd-most in NFL. The Patriots allowed 10 receiving touchdowns inside the 10 yardline to WRs last season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
The Vikings were 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Patriots averaged just 1.6 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Vikings threw the ball 56.7% of the time in the red zone last season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Patriots allowed 22 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone last season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
The Patriots had a third down conversion rate of just 34.7% last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.6% last season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots scored on 30.9% of their drives last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed scores on 31.1% of opponent drives last season — T-best in NFL.
The Patriots had a third down conversion rate of just 32.5% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 33.3% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots went three and out on 43% of their drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Patriots ran 22% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots averaged -0.80 epa per play on first drive of the game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.
The Patriots went three and out 10 times in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats
The Vikings went three and out on 7% of their drives in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Vikings had 24 receptions for 20+ yards in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
The Vikings have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Vikings ran successful plays on 53% of plays in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots defense allowed 0.27 epa per play against play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Patriots defense averaged a sack every 20.0 pass attempts (561 Pass Attempts/28 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.6.
Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats
The Vikings defense blitzed on 29% of plays last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Vikings defense allowed a passer rating of just 75.3 against play action passes (104 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 103.1.
The Vikings defense allowed a passer rating of just 76.0 first read passes (314 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 97.5.
The Vikings defense has blitzed on 29% of plays since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Vikings vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM
More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
More NFL Odds at BetMGM
Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.
From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.
And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.
Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
