Patriots vs Ravens Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 16

• The Ravens are -3 point favorites vs the Patriots
• Total (Over/Under): 48 points
• Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The New England Patriots (11-3-0) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (7-7-0) on Dec. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Baltimore, MD.

The Ravens are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Patriots vs. Ravens Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Patriots vs. Ravens Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 58.6% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Ravens Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 53.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

• Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.63 Units / 62% ROI)
• Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 67% ROI)
• TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 57% ROI)
• Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Lamar Jackson has hit the Longest Rush Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.95 Units / 70% ROI)
• Lamar Jackson has hit the Completions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Tylan Wallace has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 72% ROI)
• Rashod Bateman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 33% ROI)
• Mark Andrews has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 18 games (+18.25 Units / 56% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+11.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Ravens Best Bets:

• The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.75 Units / 41% ROI)
• The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.44 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 22 games (+4.05 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.82 Units / 41% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 9-5 (+3.5 Units / 22.95% ROI).

• Patriots are 11-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.45 Units / 30.83% ROI
• Patriots are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
• Patriots are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / ROI

Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 5-9 (-4.95 Units / -31.94% ROI).

• Ravens are 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.7 Units / -14.16% ROI
• Ravens are 8-6 when betting the Over for +1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI
• Ravens are 6-8 when betting the Under for -2.8 Units / -18.18% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens

Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted WRs 49% of the time (218 Pass Attempts/448 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Ravens have been successful on 58.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 21.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 10.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 4.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 13% of their drives in the second half this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 12.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have been successful on 58.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 21.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 10.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 4.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 13% of their drives in the second half this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 12.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted WRs 49% of the time (218 Pass Attempts/448 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted WRs 49% of the time (218 Pass Attempts/448 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats

The Ravens have been successful on 58.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 21.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 10.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 4.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 13% of their drives in the second half this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 12.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

Only 10% of the plays run against the Patriots have been in the red zone this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Patriots defense has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots defense has allowed first downs on 29% of pass attempts on 3rd down this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

Offenses facing the Patriots targeted WRs 49% of the time (218 Pass Attempts/448 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats

The Ravens have been successful on 58.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have pressured opposing QBs on 21.9% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 10.9% of their drives in the fourth quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 4.5% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL.

The Ravens have gone three and out on 13% of their drives in the second half this season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Patriots have forced three and outs on 12.3% of opponent drives in the second half this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

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More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

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