- The Giants are -6.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The New England Patriots (2-0-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-0-0) on Aug. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Giants are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).
The Patriots vs. Giants Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | +6.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +230 |
| Giants | -6.5 -110 | 37.5 -115 | -275 |
Patriots vs. Giants Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Giants will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Giants Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Giants will cover the spread with 75.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Theo Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 92% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 81% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Giants Best Bets:
- The New York Giants have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+6.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Giants have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+3.84 Units / 77% ROI)
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants
The Patriots were 1-8 (.111) when throwing at least 1 interception last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings intercepted 24 passes last season — most in NFL.
The Patriots are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .542.
The Patriots are winless (0-5) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Patriots were 1-7 (.125) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .433.
New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Giants are 1-9 (.100) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .521.
The Giants were 1-10 (.091) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .402.
The Giants were winless (0-9) when passing for less than 200 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Giants were 1-13 (.071) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .399.
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
The Giants threw 15 touchdown passes last season — fewest in NFL. The Jets allowed 18 passing TDs last season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Giants threw for 3,521 passing yards in 17 games (just 207.1 YPG) last season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Jets allowed just 192.6 passing yards per game last season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Giants averaged just 0.9 passing TDs per game last season — worst in NFL. The Jets allowed just 1.1 passing touchdowns per game last season– T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots had a third down conversion rate of just 34.7% last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 35.6% last season — T-4th-best in NFL.
The Patriots scored on 30.9% of their drives last season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed scores on 31.1% of opponent drives last season — T-best in NFL.
The Patriots had a third down conversion rate of just 32.5% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 33.3% in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 4th-best in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots went three and out on 43% of their drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Patriots ran 22% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Patriots averaged -0.80 epa per play on first drive of the game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.03.
The Patriots went three and out 10 times in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
New York Giants Offense: Important Stats
The Giants averaged -0.19 epa per play on play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Giants committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Giants averaged just 8.0 yards per play against open coverage last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 9.3.
The Giants averaged just 4.8 yards per play at home last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
38% of the plays ran against the Patriots were in the red zone in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Patriots defense allowed 0.27 epa per play against play action passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.
The Patriots defense averaged a sack every 20.0 pass attempts (561 Pass Attempts/28 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.6.
New York Giants Defense: Important Stats
The Giants defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts with tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
The Giants defense allowed a passer rating of 110.2 on motion plays (218 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 95.8.
The Giants defense allowed a passer rating of 65.7 with tight coverage (122 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.0.
Offenses facing the Giants targeted TEs 17% of the time (84 Pass Attempts/503 plays) last season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.
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