- The Dolphins are -1.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The New England Patriots (0-1-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-1-0) on Sep. 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.
The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Patriots vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Patriots | ++1.5 -115 | 44 -110 | 100 |
| Dolphins | -1.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -120 |
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 54.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Patriots vs Dolphins Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Dolphins will cover the spread with 63.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jason Sanders has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.61 Units / 59% ROI)
- Alexander Mattison has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.40 Units / 30% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+4.05 Units / 135% ROI)
Dolphins Best Bets:
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 55% ROI)
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.4 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Patriots are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Dolphins are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins
The Patriots were 1-3 (.250) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
The Patriots are winless (0-7) after a win since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .542.
The Patriots were winless (0-8) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .278.
The Patriots are 4-7 (.364) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .742.
Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Dolphins were winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .335.
The Dolphins were 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.
The Dolphins were 4-1 (.800) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Dolphins are winless (0-10) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season They play the Colts in Week 1 (Ranks seventh in passing offense).
Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins went three and out on 15.2% of their drives last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots forced three and outs on 14.4% of opponent drives last season — worst in NFL.
The Dolphins threw the ball 67.4% of the time last week — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Patriots allowed 9.8 yards per dropback last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.
Dolphins RBs had 6 receiving touchdowns last season — T-3rd-most in NFL. The Patriots allowed 6 receiving touchdowns to RBs last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Patriots WRs had just 101.1 receiving yards per game last season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins averaged just 135.8 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs last season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Patriots threw for 20+ yards on 34 of 529 attempts last season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 20+ yards on just 7.3% of attempts last season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Patriots threw the ball 67.6% of the time last week — highest in NFL. The Dolphins allowed 9.0 yards per dropback last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots went three and out 10 times in the 1st quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — most in NFL.
The Patriots averaged just 3.7 yards per play at home in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.9.
The Patriots averaged just 0.5 yards per play on first drive of the game in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Patriots went three and out on 43% of their drives in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats
The Dolphins faced a blitz just 8% of the time last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Dolphins faced a blitz 90 times last season — fewest in NFL.
The Dolphins converted first downs on just 35 of 69 plays (51%) on 3rd and short last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Dolphins ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the red zone last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 1 — most in NFL.
The Patriots defense allowed -0.97 epa per play on contested throws in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.09.
The Patriots defense sacked opposing QBs on just 5% of pass attempts (28/561) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
The Patriots defense allowed a passer rating of 126.3 against play action passes (108 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 103.1.
Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats
The Dolphins defense allowed a passer rating of just 32.5 on contested throws (53 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 73.8.
The Dolphins defense allowed -0.42 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.06.
The Dolphins defense allowed successful plays on 23% of pass attempts on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Dolphins defense allowed scores on 100% of opponent drives (7/7) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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