New England PatriotsTampa Bay Buccaneers

Patriots vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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FILE - a general view of Raymond James Stadium during an NFL football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray, FIle)

(AP Photo/Doug Murray)

The Buccaneers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New England Patriots (7-2-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Tampa, FL.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 48.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Patriots	+2.5 -110	48.5 -110	120
Buccaneers	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	-145

Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 56.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 55% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.38 Units / 46% ROI)
Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 59% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.38 Units / 34% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Rachaad White has hit the Longest Rush Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.00 Units / 20% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+12.90 Units / 51% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 33% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+6.10 Units / 48% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.05 Units / 46% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 18% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.52 Units / 20% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 6-3 (+2.7 Units / 27.41% ROI).

Patriots are 7-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.15 Units / 41.33% ROI
Patriots are 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
Patriots are 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 5-3 (+1.7 Units / 19.54% ROI).

Buccaneers are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 40.5% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers defense have allowed 8.4 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

Only 5% of the plays run against the Buccaneers have been in the red zone in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Buccaneers defense have allowed -0.77 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.48.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 53.3 first read passes (67 Pass Attempts) since Week 6 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 102.2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Patriots are undefeated (4-0) on the road this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .446.

The Patriots are 5-1 (.833) after a win this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .514.

The Patriots are 4-1 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Patriots are 6-1 (.857) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .585.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers