Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

• The Bills are -7.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
• Total (Over/Under): 50 points
• Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The New England Patriots (2-2-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (4-0-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under is 50 total points for the game.

Bet now on Bills vs Patriots & all NFL games with BetMGM

Patriots vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 86.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 59.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Bills vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

• Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 97% ROI)
• Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
• Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.20 Units / 24% ROI)
• Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

• Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
• Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Ty Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 44% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

• The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 65% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 56% ROI)
• The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+3.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 14 of their last 17 games (+12.02 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.52 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Patriots are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -5.93% ROI
• Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
• Patriots are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 2-2 (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).

• Bills are 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 17.28% ROI
• Bills are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
• Bills are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Patriots have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 9% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots ran 45 plays in Week 4 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

Bills are 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2024 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2024 season They play the Patriots in Week 5 (Ranks seventh in passing offense).

The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Bills are 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2024 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2024 season They play the Patriots in Week 5 (Ranks seventh in passing offense).

The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Patriots have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 9% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots ran 45 plays in Week 4 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 9% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots ran 45 plays in Week 4 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

Bills are 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2024 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2024 season They play the Patriots in Week 5 (Ranks seventh in passing offense).

The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots have gone three and out 5 times in the 3rd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have a third down conversion rate of 39% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 9% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 4 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Patriots ran 45 plays in Week 4 — 2nd-fewest in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

Bills are 17-1 (.944) when scoring 22 or more points (T-2nd-best in NFL) and just .000 when scoring less than 22 points since the 2024 season (T-worst in NFL).

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bills are undefeated (3-0) vs top 10 pass offenses since the 2024 season They play the Patriots in Week 5 (Ranks seventh in passing offense).

The Bills are 16-3 (.842) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2024 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Bills vs Patriots and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

• Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
• Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
• Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
• Passing Yards Prop Predictions
• Receptions Made Prop Predictions
• Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
• Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
• QB Interception Prop Predictions
• Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
• NFL Betting Previews: Every Game

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs Super Bowl odds, Lions odds to win the division, or Ravens playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!