Patriots vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 19, 2025, 11:52 AM

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A Cincinnati Bengals helmet sits on the turf prior to an NFL Football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Sep. 29, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Patriots are -8.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The New England Patriots (9-2-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-0) on Nov. 23. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Cincinnati, OH.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Patriots vs. Bengals Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Patriots vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Patriots	-8.5 -110	49.5 -105	-425
Bengals	+8.5 -110	49.5 -115	320

Patriots vs. Bengals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 77.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Patriots vs Bengals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Patriots players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Bets Today

Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.48 Units / 57% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.05 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.55 Units / 62% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.65 Units / 59% ROI)
Ja’Marr Chase has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Chase Brown has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 65% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+14.25 Units / 49% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 30% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 24% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.85 Units / 22% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.80 Units / 49% ROI)

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 8-3 (+4.7 Units / 39.33% ROI).

Patriots are 9-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.45 Units / 36.63% ROI
Patriots are 6-5 when betting the Over for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI
Patriots are 5-6 when betting the Under for -1.6 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 3-7 (-4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI).

Bengals are 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.5 Units / -33.09% ROI
Bengals are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Bengals are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 40% on 3rd and long this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Bengals defense has allowed an average of 33.7 fantasy points per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21.9.

The Bengals defense has allowed 184.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 124.0.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Patriots have scored 4 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have committed 4 turnovers in the red zone this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Patriots have averaged 0.48 epa per play on first read passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.22.

Additional Matchup Notes for New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals