Predicting the NFL Passing Touchdown Leaders for 2025

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for all quarterbacks to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. 

Joe Burrow enters 2025 as the favorite with current odds of . 

He’s trailed closely on the board by Jared Goff (), Lamar Jackson () and Patrick Mahomes (). 

Oddsmakers list four other players between +1100 and +1600: Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud. 

Who is Predicted to Lead the NFL in Passing TDs? 

NFL Passing Touchdown Leader: Prediction

Patrick Mahomes (+1000) to Lead the NFL in Pass TDs

Mahomes led the league in passing touchdowns only three years ago. He also achieved this feat in 2018 with 50 passing touchdowns. 

But since 2022, he’s produced a dropoff in touchdowns. Over the last two years, he combined for 53 passing touchdowns, only 12 more than in 2022. 

That dropoff may lead bettors to believe Kansas City pivoted to a more run-first approach in the red zone. However, the team consistently turned to Mahomes at a rapid rate. 

In ‘22 and ‘23, Mahomes led the league in passing attempts inside the 10-yard line. Last year, he ranked second with 49 such attempts (Burrow led with 66). 

What about from inside the five-yard line? While he sees a dropoff in attempts, he remains a top-five quarterback each of the last three years in attempts from inside the five-yard line. 

Another angle worth noting: generally, passing touchdown leaders play on high success rate teams. 

Since 2021, every leader in this category has played on a team second or better in passing success rate that season. 

Over the last three years, Mahomes ranks second in success rate amongst quarterbacks with at least 1,700 attempts. 

Most of that success stems from 2022. Over the last two years, he has dropped to eighth (min. 1,000 plays). 

However, Kansas City keeps turning to him in the red zone. That renders Mahomes an intriguing option at +1000.