Panthers vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

A general view of Gillette Stadium during the second half an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)
(AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)
  • The Patriots are -5.5 point favorites vs the Panthers
  • Total (Over/Under): 43 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Carolina Panthers (1-2-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (1-2-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Panthers vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Panthers vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Panthers+5.5 -11043 -110200
Patriots -5.5 -11043 -110-250

Panthers vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 76.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Panthers vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Panthers will cover the spread with 76.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Panthers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+7.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Over in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Rico Dowdle has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • David Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Chuba Hubbard has hit the Carries Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.05 Units / 23% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Antonio Gibson has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.55 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+3.44 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 17 games (+3.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Panthers are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -3.33% ROI
  • Panthers are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Panthers are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Patriots are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -38.57% ROI
  • Patriots are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Patriots are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

The Panthers have converted late downs on 2 of 28 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.14 epa per play on play action passes since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Panthers have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Panthers ran 82% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Patriots committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 22.5 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.6.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 17.7 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.7.

The Patriots have averaged 0.23 epa per play on the road this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Additional Matchup Notes for Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots

The Patriots committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 22.5 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.6.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 17.7 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.7.

The Patriots have averaged 0.23 epa per play on the road this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Panthers have converted late downs on 2 of 28 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.14 epa per play on play action passes since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Panthers have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Panthers ran 82% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers have converted late downs on 2 of 28 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.14 epa per play on play action passes since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Panthers have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Panthers ran 82% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats

The Patriots committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 22.5 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.6.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 17.7 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.7.

The Patriots have averaged 0.23 epa per play on the road this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers have converted late downs on 2 of 28 plays (7%) with over 10 yards to go this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.14 epa per play on play action passes since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

The Panthers have gone three and out on 7% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Panthers ran 82% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half in Week 3 — best in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats

The Patriots committed 5 turnovers in Week 3 — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 22.5 yard line this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 28.6.

The Patriots have an average drive start position from the 17.7 yard line in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 27.7.

The Patriots have averaged 0.23 epa per play on the road this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.