Packers vs. Commanders: NFL Week 2 Odds, Prediction

To begin the Thursday Night Football slate, the Packers host the Commanders at Lambeau Field. 

Green Bay opens with a pair of home games. 

After acquiring Micah Parsons, Green Bay saw a massive rise in the Super Bowl odds. The same can be said of Washington year over year after an NFC Championship appearance. 

Bet on Packers vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Packers vs. Commanders: NFL Week 2 Odds

Packers vs. Commanders Prediction

Sunday, September 7

Based on each team’s performance on Sunday, my current Packers vs Commanders prediction is the Packers Spread (-3.5, -110). 

Time to sell high on the Commanders and Jayden Daniels, who is just 4-3-1 ATS as a dog in his short career. 

Hidden in Washington’s win over the Giants is the red zone luck for Washington’s defense. 

Washington converted three of four red zone trips into touchdowns while New York went 0-for-2 in such conversions. 

If the Giants convert those field goals to touchdowns, there’s likely a different opinion of Washington entering Week 2. 

By last year’s metrics, the Commanders defense takes a big step forward this week. Last year, Green Bay outpaced the Giants by 24 spots in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Washington did finish 2-1 against top-five DVOA offenses last year. However, the wins came against a banged-up Lions defense and a bad Bengals unit. 

No such advantage exists over Green Bay’s defense. Based on those factors, I like the Packers laying a field goal on Thursday night. 

Thursday, September 4

Based on the current line and Matt LaFleur’s early ATS success as a head coach, my initial Packers vs Commanders prediction is the Packers Spread (-3, -110). 

Week 1 results could easily shift my opinion of this line. If we reach a point where Washington rises to +3.5 or higher, I would have to take a look at Washington. 

The problem? Matt LaFleur generally excels early. Since taking over as Packers head coach, he’s 15-3 ATS in the first three games of the year. As a favorite in those spots: 5-1 ATS. 

One potential issue arises in fading Washington. Last year, a limited sample exists of what Washington looks like against good teams, particularly good offenses. 

Last year, Washington’s results derived from its defensive performance. Dan Quinn’s side finished 11-0 when allowing 25 points or less compared to 3-6 at 26 or more. 

In five games against top-10 offenses by DVOA – Green Bay ranked fourth last year – the Commanders allowed 30 or more points four times. 

Should that happen again, I question how Washington stays within a short number. 

Although they ranked sixth in offensive DVOA last year, it came against the fourth-easiest set of defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

As a result, it’s the Packers or nothing at the current spread. 

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