Packers vs Cowboys Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

A young fan sands atop a vehicle holding a Dallas Cowboys flag outside Sofi Stadium before a preseason NFL football game between the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, Aug. 11, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
  • The Packers are -7 point favorites vs the Cowboys
  • Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
  • Watch this game on NBC | PEAC | NBCU

The Green Bay Packers (2-1-0) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys (1-2-0) on Sep. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Arlington, TX.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Packers vs. Cowboys Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Cowboys Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Packers-7 -10547.5 -110-350
Cowboys +7 -11547.5 -110275

Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 73.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Cowboys Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 58.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Jordan Love has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+4.20 Units / 41% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cowboys Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Brandon Aubrey has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • CeeDee Lamb has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Miles Sanders has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Dak Prescott has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.30 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.98 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.84 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Packers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -30.77% ROI
  • Packers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Packers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / ROI

Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Cowboys are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.25 Units / -26.88% ROI
  • Cowboys are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Cowboys are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys

The Packers ran successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Packers have started 7 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown the ball 30% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/43 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Cowboys have run the ball on 8% of plays (3 carries/36 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 78% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/9 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Cowboys have averaged 0.01 epa per play on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have run the ball on 8% of plays (3 carries/36 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 78% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/9 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Cowboys have averaged 0.01 epa per play on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Packers ran successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Packers have started 7 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown the ball 30% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/43 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers ran successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Packers have started 7 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown the ball 30% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/43 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats

The Cowboys have run the ball on 8% of plays (3 carries/36 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 78% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/9 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Cowboys have averaged 0.01 epa per play on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers ran successful plays on 20% of rush attempts in Week 3 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Packers have run successful plays on 0% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.

The Packers have started 7 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the 1st half this season — most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown the ball 30% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/43 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats

The Cowboys have run the ball on 8% of plays (3 carries/36 plays) on 3rd down this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Cowboys have thrown the ball 78% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/9 plays) on 3rd and short this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Cowboys have averaged 0.01 epa per play on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.21.

The Cowboys have run successful plays on 46% of pass attempts on first read passes since the 2024 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.