Packers vs Browns Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

FILE - Huntington Bank Field during an NFL football game between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants, Sept. 22, 2024, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)
(AP Photo/Kirk Irwin, File)
  • The Packers are -8 point favorites vs the Browns
  • Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
  • Watch this game on FOX

The Green Bay Packers (2-0-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (0-2-0) on Sep. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

The Packers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8 (-110).

The Packers vs. Browns Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Packers vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Packers-8 -11041.5 -110-425
Browns +8 -11041.5 -110325

Packers vs. Browns Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Packers will win this game with 82.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Packers vs Browns Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Packers players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Packers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jordan Love has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Romeo Doubs has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.33 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Josh Jacobs has hit the Carries Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.96 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Jerome Ford has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+3.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.16 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+4.35 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+4.15 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.65 Units / 18% ROI)

Packers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Packers are 2-0 (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

  • Packers are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 67.8% ROI
  • Packers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Packers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Browns are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Browns are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Browns are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Green Bay Packers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Packers were 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .292.

The Packers were 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 offenses last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .318.

The Packers were 5-1 (.833) vs bottom 10 run offenses last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

The Packers were 11-6 (.647) last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Green Bay Packers

The Browns were winless (0-4) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.

The Browns are winless (0-4) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .733.

The Browns are winless (0-4) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2024 season They play the Packers in Week 3 (Ranks fifth in passing defense).

The Browns were winless (0-13) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .152.

Additional Matchup Notes for Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have been successful on just 40.0% of rush attempts since the 2024 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed a success rate of just 39.6% on rush attempts since the 2024 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Browns have averaged just 0.14 epa per play against open coverage since the 2024 season — worst in NFL. The Packers have allowed just 0.34 epa per play with open coverage since the 2024 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns ran just 4.2% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Packers allowed their opponent to run just 6.2% of plays in the red zone last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Packers have been successful on 64.7% of plays they have run on play action passes this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Browns have allowed a success rate of 66.7% on play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Packers went three and out on 33.3% of their drives last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns forced three and outs on 33.3% of opponent drives last week — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Packers have a third down conversion rate of just 31.3% in the second half since the 2024 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 29.8% in the second half since the 2024 season — best in NFL.

Green Bay Packers Offense: Important Stats

The Packers have averaged 8.1 yards per play in the 1st half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

The Packers have started 5 drives inside opposing territory this season — T-most in NFL.

The Packers have thrown the ball 23% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/30 plays) in the 4th quarter this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Packers averaged 5.7 yards per play against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3.8.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns averaged -0.30 epa per play on motion plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns are averaging 10.6 drives per TD in the 1st half since the 2024 season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.5.

The Browns have averaged -0.26 epa per play on motion plays since the 2024 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Browns averaged 0.13 epa per play against open coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.42.

Green Bay Packers Defense: Important Stats

The Packers defense has allowed successful plays on 6% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Packers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 40.6 on 3rd and long (90 Pass Attempts) since the 2024 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 83.1.

The Packers defense allowed a passer rating of just 40.6 on 3rd and long (78 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 83.1.

The Packers defense has allowed 5.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (522 yards / 96 touches) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense tackled opponents for a loss on 93 of 463 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

The Browns defense have forced three and outs on 46% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Browns defense tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 18 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 12%.

Offenses facing the Browns threw deep balls on 33% of pass attempts (26/78) on 3rd and long last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.