NFL home teams haven’t finished above .500 against the spread (ATS) over an entire regular season since 2017-18. And over the last 20 years, their cumulative cover rate is approximately 49%. While, in the most simple terms, there wasn’t a home-field advantage in league-wide spread betting over those two decades, several teams have been great.
From 2005-24, the Green Bay Packers covered the spread in more than 58% of regular-season games at Lambeau Field. It’s more than 3 percentage points higher than the next-closest team, the Seattle Seahawks (55%) and approximately 16 points higher than the league’s worst team, the Jacksonville Jaguars (42%).
The Packers haven’t posted a sub-.500 home ATS record since 2013-14. And that’s their lone sub-.500 season since 2009. If this exercise didn’t include the first two seasons (2005-06 and 2006-07), their cover rate jumps to nearly 62%. No other team is above 55% over those same 18 seasons.
| Rank | Team | ATS Win Pct. |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Packers | .584 |
| 2 | Seahawks | .552 |
| 3 | Vikings | .547 |
| 4 | Steelers | .543 |
| 5 | Patriots | .528 |
| 6 | Bills | .525 |
| 6 | Lions | .525 |
| 8 | Colts | .509 |
| 9 | Saints | .507 |
| 10 | Ravens | .503 |
| 11 | Cardinals | .497 |
| 12 | Bengals | .494 |
| 13 | 49ers | .491 |
| 14 | Cowboys | .488 |
| 14 | Jets | .488 |
| 16 | Bears | .484 |
| 16 | Eagles | .484 |
| 18 | Panthers | .478 |
| 18 | Dolphins | .478 |
| 20 | Chargers | .475 |
| 21 | Chiefs | .466 |
| 22 | Giants | .463 |
| 22 | Broncos | .463 |
| 22 | Browns | .463 |
| 22 | Falcons | .463 |
| 26 | Titans | .457 |
| 27 | Rams | .456 |
| 28 | Texans | .454 |
| 29 | Commanders | .451 |
| 30 | Raiders | .436 |
| 31 | Buccaneers | .434 |
| 32 | Jaguars | .417 |
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