NFL Dark Horse Predictions for 2025

Last year, the Vikings, Commanders and Broncos surprised NFL bettors on their way to a postseason run. 

All three of those teams entered the 2024 season with win totals set at 6.5 or less. By doing so, those teams extended a notable streak since the league expanded to 14 playoff teams. 

Since 2020, at least one team with a win total of fewer than seven has reached the playoffs. In each of the previous four seasons, multiple qualifying teams accomplished the feat. 

Which teams could outperform market expectations in 2025? Let’s dive into my NFL Dark Horse candidates based on NFL odds. 

To guide the exercise, I considered teams currently +6000 or higher in the Super Bowl odds. 

Who Are the NFL Dark Horses in 2025? 

Atlanta Falcons (+8000 to Win the Super Bowl, Win Total: 7.5)

Everyone seems ready to give up on the Falcons. That comes after a monumental hype train backed their futures in 2024. 

Through Week 9, the Falcons sat at 6-3. They had only lost to Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Seattle. 

Turnovers led Atlanta to a fluke Week 10 loss at New Orleans. Then Kirk Cousins forgot how to play football, with Atlanta dropping five of its final seven to concede the NFC South lead. 

While the defense proved a problem last year, the offense excelled. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson led the Falcons to 14th in offensive DVOA, up 10 spots from 2023. 

Atlanta also jumped from 22nd in rush offense DVOA to fifth in 2024, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That should continue in 2025. Even with Drew Dahlman leaving, the Falcons still own a brilliant offensive line. 

One final factor to consider with the 2024 Falcons: field goal luck. 

Opponents made 97% of field-goal attempts against Atlanta, almost six over expected, according to Sharp Football Analysis. 

Meanwhile, the Falcons made 3.67 under expectation. That resigned Atlanta to the worst field-goal luck in the league. 

All those factors lead me to believe in Atlanta, which faces the league’s fourth-easiest schedule of opponents based on win totals. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8000 to Win the Super Bowl, Win Total: 7.5)

I’m not sure the public reaction to Liam Coen’s hire is proportional. 

Last year, Coen transformed the Bucs offense. If he achieves the same result in Jacksonville, expect Coen to find himself in the Coach of the Year conversation. 

The Jaguars ranked 26th in points per game last year. But lost in that rating is that Jacksonville played the hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

It marked the second straight year the Jaguars faced a top-four set of opposing defenses. 

Accounting for the difficulty, Jacksonville ranked 17th in offensive DVOA. That came despite Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury. 

Let’s assume an easier defensive schedule. If it’s the case, Coen could radically improve Jacksonville’s offense and help the team achieve better results. 

While the Jaguars lost 13 games last year, 10 came by seven or fewer points. Two of those losses came against the Texans by seven combined points! 

That led Jacksonville to finish two wins under expected. 

If positive regression arrives against an easy schedule – Jacksonville plays the league’s sixth-easiest based on win totals – this team could surprise in 2025. 

Las Vegas Raiders (+10000 to Win the Super Bowl, Win Total: 6.5)

Pete Carroll and Geno Smith in, Antonio Pierce and Gardner Minshew out. 

Is that not an instant upgrade for 2025? 

Carroll finished 9-4-1 to the over on his win total in 15 years with the Seahawks. It instantly provides a floor for a team that should improve defensively next year. 

Last year, the Raiders ranked 18th in defensive DVOA, a 10-spot decline from 2023. 

But two factors likely contributed to the downfall. 

They finished as the second-most injured defense by adjusted games lost, per ftnfantasy.com. Additionally, Las Vegas faced the league’s sixth-hardest set of offenses. 

By 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, the Raiders project to face an easier schedule of offenses. In fact, they play the league’s easiest schedule of offenses based on those ratings. 

Is that actually going to prove fruitful? Maybe not. Improvements should come from Chicago, Dallas, Tennessee, Houston and the Giants, who drive down that rating. 

But Smith and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty should counterbalance that with a floor-raising offense. 

Additionally, only room for improvement exists within the division. Last year, Las Vegas finished 0-6 in the AFC West. 

All of those signs lead me to enter 2025 with confidence in Las Vegas. At minimum, I expect the Raiders to outperform their market expectation.