Lions vs Commanders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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FILE - FedEx Field, home of the Washington Commanders NFL football team, is shown before the start of a football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, in Landover, Md. A group led by Josh Harris and Mitchell Rales that includes Magic Johnson has an agreement in principle to buy the NFL's Washington Commanders from longtime owner Dan Snyder for a North American professional sports team record $6 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the situation. The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity Thursday, April 13, 2023, because the deal had not been announced. (AP Photo/Nick Wass, File)

(AP Photo/Nick Wass)

The Lions are -8 point favorites vs the Commanders
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (5-3-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (3-6-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Landover, MD.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -8 (-110).

The Lions vs. Commanders Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Lions vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Lions	-8 -110	49.5 -110	-450
Commanders	+8 -110	49.5 -110	340

Lions vs. Commanders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 79.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Commanders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Commanders will cover the spread with 52.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 24% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+4.20 Units / 20% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jaylin Lane has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 51% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.00 Units / 61% ROI)
Deebo Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 61% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 54% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+5.00 Units / 42% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Commanders Best Bets:

The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.56 Units / 21% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.55 Units / 30% ROI)
The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.48 Units / 20% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 5-3 (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

Lions are 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -4.57% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Lions are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI

Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 3-6 (-3.5 Units / -36.08% ROI).

Commanders are 3-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -32.28% ROI
Commanders are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
Commanders are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders

The Lions have started 16 drives inside opposing territory this season — most in NFL.

The Lions have thrown the ball 63% of the time (19 Pass Attempts/30 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Lions have a third down conversion rate of 4% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 20%.

The Lions ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in Week 9 — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Commanders have scored on 14% of their drives (3/22) in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Commanders have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half since Week 6 — T-most in NFL.

The Commanders have started 6 drives inside their own 10 yard line since Week 6 — T-most in NFL.

The Commanders have averaged just 3.6 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.7.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders