Lions vs Bengals Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Oct 01, 2025, 11:13 AM

min read

A Cincinnati Bengals helmet sits on the turf prior to an NFL Football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Sep. 29, 2024, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

(AP Photo/Brian Westerholt)

The Lions are -10.5 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 49.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Detroit Lions (3-1-0) visit Paycor Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bengals (2-2-0) on Oct. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).

The Lions vs. Bengals Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Bengals vs Lions & all NFL games with BetMGM

Lions vs. Bengals Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Lions	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-625
Bengals	+10.5 -110	49.5 -110	450

Lions vs. Bengals Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 86.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Lions vs Bengals Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 79.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Bengals vs Lions and all NFL games with BetMGM

Get a New Player Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Lions players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Lions Player Prop Bets Today

Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 47% ROI)
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bengals players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Best Bets Today

Noah Fant has hit the Receptions Over in his last 13 games (+14.05 Units / 88% ROI)
Evan McPherson has hit the Field Goals Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Andrei Iosivas has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Noah Fant has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
Samaje Perine has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)

Lions Best Bets:

The Detroit Lions have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 49% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 10 away games (+9.05 Units / 48% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 33% ROI)
The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 17% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Lions are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 29.85% ROI
Lions are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Lions are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bengals are 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Bengals are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Bengals are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bengals are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Lions defense has allowed 4 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts from their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Lions defense allowed a passer rating of just 38.3 (35 Pass Attempts) in Week 4 — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.2.

The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 2.8 when the opposing QB has scrambled (6 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 49.0.

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Bengals defense has allowed 3 TDs on first drive of the game this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Bengals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 49% this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bengals defense has allowed successful plays on 62% of plays in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Bengals defense has allowed first downs on 49% of plays on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals