Raiders Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Raiders’ win total sits at 7.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

The 2024 season proved a trying one for Las Vegas, which regressed from eight wins in 2023 to four in 2024. As a result, head coach Antonio Pierce lost his job. 

Las Vegas hired Pete Carroll as a replacement and added Geno Smith via trade. Despite those transactions, Vegas enters 2025 with the same win total as last season. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Las Vegas’ 2025 win total and my Raiders win total prediction.  

Raiders Win Total Odds

The Raiders’ season win total is set at 7.5 games. 

Currently, oddsmakers believe the Raiders are more likely to finish under this number. Under 7.5 wins is currently priced at . 

Conversely, the over is priced at . 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC West teams:

• Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Chargers: 9.5 Wins
• Denver Broncos: 9.5 Wins
• Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 Wins

Raiders Win Total Prediction 2025

Las Vegas Raiders Over 6.5 Wins (-150)

Based on implied probability, the Raiders are predicted to have over 6.5 wins with 60% confidence. My Raiders win total prediction is Over 6.5 Wins (-150), based on likely improvement from the defense and quality offensive additions. 

BET: Raiders Over 6.5 Wins @ +130

BET: Raiders Under 6.5 Wins @ -155  

I’m not sure I gave enough credit to the Raiders’ defense last season. 

Vegas ranked eighth in defensive DVOA in 2023 and dropped to 17th last season, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The falloff lacks surprise when one considers the upgrade in difficulty. In 2023, Las Vegas faced the 18th-hardest set of offenses before facing the sixth-hardest set in 2024. 

Yet, they only fell eight spots in the rankings despite losing the second-most adjusted games to injury on defense, also per ftnfantasy.com. 

The fact that happened and the Raiders ONLY fell eight spots gives me optimism about its defense heading into 2025. 

Based on Las Vegas’ opponents’ offensive DVOA ratings last season, the Raiders are projected to go from the sixth-hardest set of offensive opponents to the easiest. 

If the Raiders’ defense trends healthier in 2025 and plays better, it opens the door for Carroll’s first season to see some positive regression. 

The Raiders finished with only four wins last season compared to 5.3 expected victories, per pro-football-reference.com. 

The offseason also saw key personnel added on offense with Smith’s arrival. 

While I maintain concerns about the offensive line, Smith’s experience behind a weak Seattle O-Line should come in handy. 

Carroll simultaneously represents a massive upgrade over Pierce along with new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. 

Carroll finished 9-4-1 to the over against Seattle’s season win total in 14 seasons at the helm with the Seahawks, including 5-1 in his last six. 

As a result, I like the Raiders to notch at least seven wins in 2025.

Most Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 13. In 1976, the Raiders went 13-3 and won the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Raiders History

The Raiders’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is two. In 2006, the Raiders struggled, finishing with a 2-14 record.