- The Jets are a 1.5-point home underdog against the Cowboys.
- The Jets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- My Jets vs Cowboys prediction is for the Jets (+2.5) to cover the spread.
The Cowboys aim to continue their momentum from Week 4 as road favorites against the Jets.
Dallas tied against the Packers in Week 4. Brian Schottenheimer’s team easily covered the spread in that game as 6.5-point home underdogs, moving to 1-2-1.
The Jets fell to 0-4 SU with a loss to the Dolphins on MNF. It leaves Aaron Glenn’s team at the bottom of the AFC East despite a 2-2 ATS record on the season.
Bet on Jets vs. Cowboys and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
Jets vs. Cowboys: NFL Week 5 Odds
Jets vs. Cowboys Prediction
Based on the public’s overwhelming preference for Dallas to cover and the Cowboys’ weak defensive record, my Jets vs Cowboys prediction is the Jets Spread (+2.5, -105).
All the tickets are backing the Cowboys to cover on Sunday. If you subscribe to the “fade the consensus” theory, it’s a prime spot to back the Jets.
As of Friday afternoon, 71% of bets placed are supporting Dallas to cover. However, money wagered favors the Jets by a 55-45% split.
For Dallas, it’s a terrible spot. The team has to travel after a home SNF game in which they played an entire extra quarter.
That likely mitigates some of the disadvantages for New York off a road MNF game.
As far as the matchup is concerned, New York’s offense should effectively move the ball. Dallas ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA and has struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks.
Offensively, the Cowboys could miss a few key pieces. CeeDee Lamb remains out on Sunday, while offensive linemen Tyler Booker, Tyler Guyton and Tyler Smith haven’t practiced this week.
Plus, the Jets’ repeated close games render their record a bit misleading. According to ftnfantasy.com, New York has zero wins off 1.8 expected.
Driving that underperformance? A pair of two-point losses to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, plus a five-point loss to the Dolphins.
Plus, New York quietly ranks seventh in offensive success rate. Defensively, the team sits sixth in success rate.
All of those metrics lead me to believe the Jets offer decent buy-low candidacy against a public betting darling.
Betting Jets vs. Cowboys: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 70% | 53% | 60% | 65% |
| Jets | 30% | 47% | 40% | 35% |
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