Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 12, 2025, 3:33 PM

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A general view of Gillette Stadium during the second half an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Washington Commanders on Sunday, Nov. 5, 2023, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

(AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

The Patriots are -13 point favorites vs the Jets
Total (Over/Under): 43 points
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The New York Jets (2-7-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (8-2-0) on Nov. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Foxborough, MA.

The Patriots are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -13 (-110).

The Jets vs. Patriots Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jets	+13 -110	43 -110	550
Patriots	-13 -110	43 -110	-800

Jets vs. Patriots Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Patriots will win this game with 78.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Patriots Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Patriots will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.40 Units / 68% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 66% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.30 Units / 48% ROI)
Isaiah Davis has hit the Carries Under in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 84% ROI)
Justin Fields has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today

Mack Hollins has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.33 Units / 45% ROI)
Drake Maye has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)
Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 41% ROI)
Demario Douglas has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Longest Reception Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)

Jets Best Bets:

The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+8.32 Units / 47% ROI)
The New York Jets have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.62 Units / 40% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.55 Units / 40% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.50 Units / 86% ROI)

Patriots Best Bets:

The New England Patriots have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
The New England Patriots have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.05 Units / 22% ROI)
The New England Patriots have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 5-4 (+0.75 Units / 7.69% ROI).

Jets are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -43.85% ROI
Jets are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Jets are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / ROI

Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 7-3 (+3.7 Units / 34.1% ROI).

Patriots are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 46.17% ROI
Patriots are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
Patriots are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots

11% of the Jets offense’s first downs (1 of 9) came through the air in Week 10 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Jets ran successful plays on 9% of pass attempts in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Jets allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 64% of pass attempts in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Jets ran successful plays on 0% of pass attempts in the 1st half in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Patriots have scored 4 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.

The Patriots have committed 4 turnovers in the red zone this season — T-most in NFL.

The Patriots have run successful plays on 25% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Patriots ran successful plays on 19% of rush attempts in Week 10 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. New England Patriots