Jets vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 4

A Miami Dolphins football helmet sits on the grass during an NFL football game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Doug Murray)
(AP Photo/Doug Murray)
  • The Dolphins are -2.5 point favorites vs the Jets
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch this game on ESPN | ESPD

The New York Jets (0-3-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (0-3-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-120).

The Jets vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Jets vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Jets+2.5 10045 -110125
Dolphins -2.5 -12045 -110-150

Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Jets will win this game with 59.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jets vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jets will cover the spread with 59.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jets players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jets Player Prop Bets Today

  • Breece Hall has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Braelon Allen has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Braelon Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Braelon Allen has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Devon Achane has hit the Carries Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Malik Washington has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.11 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Tyreek Hill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Tua Tagovailoa has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.95 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New York Jets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.05 Units / 90% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 2H Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.60 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Dolphins have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Jets are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Jets are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Jets are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Dolphins are 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
  • Dolphins are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Dolphins are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Jets have run the ball on 30% of plays (46 carries/151 plays) in the red zone since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jets have converted first downs on just 10 of 36 plays (28%) on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 0% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 50% against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 9% of the time since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz 108 times since the 2024 season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted late downs on 3 of 35 plays (9%) with over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.56 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

Additional Matchup Notes for New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 9% of the time since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz 108 times since the 2024 season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted late downs on 3 of 35 plays (9%) with over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.56 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

The Jets have run the ball on 30% of plays (46 carries/151 plays) in the red zone since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jets have converted first downs on just 10 of 36 plays (28%) on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 0% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 50% against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

New York Jets Offense: Important Stats

The Jets have run the ball on 30% of plays (46 carries/151 plays) in the red zone since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jets have converted first downs on just 10 of 36 plays (28%) on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 0% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 50% against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 9% of the time since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz 108 times since the 2024 season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted late downs on 3 of 35 plays (9%) with over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.56 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

New York Jets Defense: Important Stats

The Jets have run the ball on 30% of plays (46 carries/151 plays) in the red zone since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Jets have converted first downs on just 10 of 36 plays (28%) on 3rd down this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 0% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Jets have a third down conversion rate of 50% against tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins have faced a blitz just 9% of the time since the 2024 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Dolphins have faced a blitz 108 times since the 2024 season — fewest in NFL.

The Dolphins have converted late downs on 3 of 35 plays (9%) with over 10 yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 3%.

The Dolphins have averaged -0.56 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.11.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.