Jaguars vs. Texans: NFL Week 3 Odds, Prediction

The Jaguars begin their AFC South slate on Sunday at home against the Houston Texans. 

Jacksonville sits at 1-1 following a road defeat against the Bengals in Week 2. Now, they return home to face a Texans team that finished 2-0 SU against Jacksonville last season. 

Houston dropped to 0-2 SU & ATS with a 20-19 loss on Monday Night Football against Tampa Bay. Following the losses, Houston sits third in the live AFC South odds. 

Bet on Jaguars vs. Texans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Jaguars vs. Texans: NFL Week 3 Odds

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction

Based on the market’s perception of the Texans and the difficult schedule early for Houston, my Jaguars vs Texans prediction is the Texans Moneyline (-105). 

I go back and forth between the Houston moneyline and the game total under. 

The bad news for Houston is that Jacksonville owns a rest advantage over the Texans, who played on Monday night. 

But the best unit on the field is the Houston defense. Although the team sits 24th in defensive DVOA, playing a pair of top-10 DVOA offenses has to contribute to that ranking. 

Last season, the Texans finished third in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

A big gap exists between these teams’ early metrics. Jacksonville ranks eighth in DVOA while Houston sits 22nd. 

However, the Texans have played the seventh-hardest schedule while Jacksonville has played the fourth-easiest. 

That, in my estimation, creates a buy-low spot on the Texans on the road. 

History also favors the Texans to grab their first win of the season in Week 3. 

Since 2004, road division dogs between +1 and +3.5 are 48-40-1 SU, assuming the dog won 10-11 games last year and made the postseason. 

As a result, I like the Texans to end their losing streak and hand the Jaguars a second straight loss. 

Betting Jaguars vs. Texans: NFL Public Betting