- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last eight games against the Jaguars.
- My Chiefs vs Jaguars prediction is for the Chiefs (-3) to cover the spread.
Patrick Mahomes takes the Chiefs to Jacksonville as Kansas City goes for a third straight win.Â
Kansas City pummeled the Ravens on Sunday as the offense came alive. With Xavier Worthy back in the lineup, the Chiefs scored 37 points on their way to a win.Â
Meanwhile, Jacksonville improved to 3-1 with a road win over the San Francisco 49ers. A Parker Washington 87-yard punt return proved the difference as Jacksonville won 26-21.Â
Bet on Jaguars vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Jaguars vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 5 Odds
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on Patrick Mahomes’ record as a short favorite and the recent failures of dogs off a cover, my Jaguars vs Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-3, -110).Â
Very little separates these teams. After Week 4, the Jaguars rank seventh in total DVOA while Kansas City sits eighth, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
However, have the Jaguars played anyone who warrants this kind of respect?Â
Strong defensive play has proved to be the staple in Jacksonville. Anthony Campanile’s unit ranks third in defensive DVOA, but has played the third-easiest set of opposing offenses.Â
Accordingly, it should come as no surprise that the Jaguars have forced – and I swear this is real – 13 turnovers through four games!Â
That is simply unsustainable as the Jaguars start facing better offenses. The first test comes on Monday as Jacksonville plays a Chiefs offense seventh in DVOA.Â
If there’s an encouraging sign for Jacksonville, it’s that the team ranks second in rush offense DVOA. On defense, Kansas City ranks 24th in the corresponding category.Â
However, recent short underdogs have struggled to replicate success off a massive cover.Â
Since 2023, dogs between +3 and +4 that posted a +8.5 or better ATS margin in the last game are 19-43-3 ATS.Â
Generally, that system improves when that team closed as a favorite in their previous game (6-29-1 as a favorite vs 14-13-1 as a dog). Jacksonville achieved that feat as a market underdog.Â
But they’re taking on a quarterback that owns a 12-6 ATS between -2 and -3. Accordingly, it’s a slight preference to the Chiefs on MNF.Â
Betting Jaguars vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 75% | 79% | 64% | 83% |
| Jaguars | 25% | 21% | 36% | 17% |
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