Jaguars vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 07, 2025, 10:52 AM

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A detail view of a Houston Texans helmet on the sideline prior to an NFL preseason football game against the Carolina Panthers, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, in Houston. (AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

(AP Photo/Maria Lysaker)

The Texans are +1 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (3-5-0) on Nov. 9. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at +1 (-110).

The Jaguars vs. Texans Over/Under is 37.5 total points for the game.

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Jaguars vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Jaguars	-1 -110	37.5 -110	-115
Texans	+1 -110	37.5 -110	-105

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 52.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Jaguars vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Jaguars will cover the spread with 52.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players this game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Bets Today

Trevor Lawrence has hit the TD Passes Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.35 Units / 33% ROI)
Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.20 Units / 44% ROI)
Parker Washington has hit the Longest Reception Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)
Dyami Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)
Tim Patrick has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Ka’imi Fairbairn has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 39% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.05 Units / 51% ROI)
Xavier Hutchinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Dalton Schultz has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 22% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.55 Units / 21% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 19% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.55 Units / 6% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.44 Units / 20% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.65 Units / 27% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.55 Units / 14% ROI)
The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)
The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.00 Units / 10% ROI)

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Jaguars are 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 30.61% ROI
Jaguars are 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Jaguars are 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 3-5 (-2.55 Units / -28.81% ROI).

Texans are 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -22.44% ROI
Texans are 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.5 Units / -39.77% ROI
Texans are 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Texans have converted first downs on just 12 of 30 plays (40%) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 60%.

The Texans have run 30% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Texans have run successful plays on 29% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Texans went three and out on 50% of their drives in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have averaged -0.67 epa per play against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.12.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on 43% of plays on first read passes this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

The Jaguars have gone three and out on 50% of their drives in the 1st quarter since Week 6 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Jaguars ran 68% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

Additional Matchup Notes for Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans