Generally speaking, NFL underdogs win outright at a relatively low rate.
That’s not to say it never happens. However, bettors who blindly bet every NFL underdog to win outright have, historically, experienced negative results.
Let’s dive into the historical data based on NFL odds.
How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win?
Dating back to the 2003 NFL season, NFL underdogs posted a 1,868-3,793-13 record. That’s good for a 33% win percentage.
Home dogs have generally proven better bets from a win percentage standpoint. Over the same timeframe, dogs playing at home recorded a 34.9% win percentage. Away from home, the win percentage drops to 32.1%.
Of course, this sample takes into account ALL NFL underdogs. If you shrink the sample down to underdogs featuring shorter spreads, the results improve.
Dogs listed by oddsmakers at +3 or shorter own a 44.2% win percentage over the same span. Those dogs tend to perform better on the road with a 45.6% win percentage since 2003. Comparatively, home dogs listed at +3 or shorter have won at a 42.7% clip.
Meanwhile, bigger underdogs succeeded more at home. Irrespective of venue, dogs listed at +3.5 or higher recorded a 26.8% win percentage since 2003, including 28.6% at home.
In the 2024-25 NFL season, underdogs struggled to pick up outright wins.
Last year, dogs posted a 28.3% win percentage, including a dismal 25.9% win rate as home underdogs.
Are NFL Underdogs Profitable?
Generally, underdogs are not profitable. A $100 bettor who bet every underdog since 2003 would be down $24,141 for a -4.3% return on investment.
Since the 2003 season, dogs have returned a positive return on investment five times. These successes occurred in 2004 (+0.7%), 2006 (+29.1%), 2015 (+7.6%), 2019 (+3%) and 2021 (+8.9%).
What about the shortest underdogs? Earlier, I noted that road dogs listed at +3 or shorter win at a 45.6% rate. These underdogs have, historically, produced a profitable return on investment.
Dating back to 2003, a bettor backing every road dog at +3 or shorter saw a 3.4% return on investment.
In terms of individual season results, those dogs produced a positive ROI 13 times out of 22 seasons. On five of those occasions, underdogs saw at least a 20% return on investment.
Meanwhile, road dogs at +3 or smaller saw a -20% ROI or worse three times.
In the 2024 season, such teams finished 25-29 for a 3.6% return on investment. It marked the first time since 2021 those teams returned a positive ROI.
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