Everyone who’s dabbled in online sports betting has considered a favorite at least once. After all, it’s easy to like the team that’s supposed to win.
But when it comes to NFL betting, how often does the favorite actually win? And is it actually a good bet?
I did the research so that you don’t have to.
How Often Do NFL Favorites Win?
According to Bet Labs, NFL moneyline favorites that were -115 or shorter posted a record of 181-85 in 2023. That’s a win percentage of 68%.
That’s slightly higher than the 2022 season, where the same class of teams went 175-88-2. That’s a 66.5% win rate.
That 2022 rate is mostly in line with favorite win percentages since online sports betting was functionally legalized by the US Supreme Court in 2018. In the six full seasons since then, NFL moneyline favorites are 1013-508-7 (66.6%).
So … not bad, right? Winning two-thirds of the time seems pretty good.
I’ll circle back to those moneyline/spread splits here in a second, but let’s answer another important question first.
Are NFL Favorites Profitable?
No, they are not. At least not en masse.
NFL moneyline favorites might win a big majority of their games, but the reduced payout in the moneyline market is more powerful than the on-field advantage that favorites generally have.
If you bet every favorite in the moneyline NFL odds market in 2022, your overall ROI would be at -3% equity over the course of the regular season.
That 3% loss is roughly in line with historical standards for NFL moneyline betting over the past 20 years.
Of course, very few people are going to bet every single moneyline favorite for an entire NFL season, which means the key lesson here is to choose carefully when identifying betting favorites. For regular bettors, your long-term profitability depends on it.
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