How Many Points Will the Packers Score this Season?

Last year, the Packers offense took a big step forward from 2023. 

Two years ago, Green Bay ranked sixth in offensive DVOA and scored 383 points. Last year, the team improved to fourth with 460 total points. 

Dating back to 2018, Green Bay finished no worse than 12th in offensive DVOA. Over that span, the team cleared this year’s point total three times. 

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for this year’s regular-season point total for Green Bay.  

Prediction: How Many Points Will the Packers Score? 

Based on likely defensive regression from Green Bay and the success of last year’s offense, I predict the Packers finish Over 410.5 Points (-110). 

This number initially struck me as somewhat low. While buying high off a 460-point performance feels slightly dangerous, a few factors inform the decision. 

First, Green Bay could see a significant amount of defensive regression. 

Last year, only the Vikings, Bills and Steelers produced more turnovers than the Packers (31). That record led the Packers defense to finish fourth in EPA per play but 21st in success rate. 

On plays excluding turnovers, Green Bay ranked seventh in EPA per play and 23rd in success rate. 

This year, they face a more difficult schedule of offenses that should inform regression. 

Next season, the Packers project to face the league’s 13th-hardest set of offenses based on 2024 DVOA rankings. Last season, they faced the league’s 21st-hardest schedule. 

If the Packers defense regresses, it puts greater pressure on the offense to perform. 

The good news? Little suggests regression from the Packers offense. Last year, they finished fourth in offensive DVOA against the second-hardest schedule of defenses. 

Based on last year’s defensive DVOA rankings, the Packers face eight games against top-10 defenses. However, those rankings usually prove more fluid than offensive DVOA. 

Even more impressive about Green Bay’s record is that they managed that offensive record despite two separate injury issues for Jordan Love. 

While the offense as a whole proved fairly healthy, a more consistent Love likely means a sustained offensive record. 

Of course, a higher amount of offensive injuries could derail the team’s offense. 

But one factor could mitigate potential injuries. 

Last season, of the teams seventh or better in offensive DVOA, only three ranked fifth or better in both pass and rush DVOA: Buffalo, Baltimore and Green Bay. 

That could help mitigate potential injury issues. If so, expect another strong offense from the Packers.