How Many Points Will the Lions Score this Season?

Last year, the Lions proved to be a machine at scoring points. 

Detroit led the league in points per game, notching 564 points. That represents a 103-point improvement over the team’s 2023 output. 

This year, Detroit’s point total is set at 431.5 points. The team has cleared that number in each of the previous three seasons. 

Can the team achieve it with some offensive personnel changes? Let’s take a look at the NFL odds and my Lions regular-season points prediction. 

Prediction: How Many Points Will the Lions Score? 

Based on the Lions’ schedule breakdown and the personnel changes on offense, I predict Detroit finishes Under 431.5 Points (-110). 

Stepping in front of the offense is a scary thought. But a few key departures leave me more pessimistic about the Lions’ offense compared to last season. 

The obvious change is at offensive coordinator. Ben Johnson leaves for Chicago and is replaced by John Morton. 

Along with Johnson, the Lions lost Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler along the offensive line. Those departures are not insignificant for one of the league’s top lines. 

Additionally, what seems to be baked into the number is the Lions’ schedule makeup. Last season, Detroit played all but three games in a dome, where offenses tend to succeed more. 

This season, no such advantage exists. Detroit gets its usual eight home games indoors, but only two of nine road games are in a dome/retro-roof (at Rams, at Vikings). 

Last season, Detroit averaged 4.1 more points per game at home. The team still averaged 30.8 points per game on the road, a six-point jump from 2024. 

This year, the road schedule presents a brutal challenge. 

Can Detroit succeed against the Commanders and Bengals defenses? Probably. 

But the team also faces five games against teams 14th or better in defensive DVOA last season, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Plus, Detroit could see some injury regression on offense. 

The Lions suffered a disproportionate amount of injuries last year, but virtually all of them came on defense. 

Detroit was rated as the most-injured defense last season by adjusted games lost. Comparatively, they proved the second-healthiest offense. 

Based on that fact, only room for regression exists on offense. If that materializes in 2025, it could lead to a massive decrease in the team’s point total.