- Cincinnati’s regular-season point total is projected at 445.5 points.
- Last year, the Bengals offense scored 472 points with three TDs on D/ST.
- I predict the Bengals finish over 445.5 points (-110) in 2025.
For the Bengals to succeed in 2025, it likely starts with the offense replicating its 2024 performance.Â
Cincinnati racked up 472 points in 2024 for the sixth-most points per game in the league. Just from Week 3 onward, the offense scored 29.8 points per game, up from 27.8 for the year.Â
In terms of underlying metrics, Cincinnati finished fourth in offensive DVOA. The Bengals also finished second in passing success rate.Â
Let’s take a look at the NFL odds and my Bengals regular-season points prediction.Â
Prediction: How Many Points Will the Bengals Score?Â
Based on the increase in difficulty for the defense and Cincinnati’s offensive record last year, I predict the Bengals finish Over 445.5 Points (-110).Â
Everyone knows the Bengals defense played horribly last year. An argument exists that they’ll look even worse in 2025.Â
Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, Cincinnati faced the league’s third-easiest set of opposing offenses. On only six occasions did they face a team that finished 13th or better.Â
Next season, the schedule toughens for the defense. Based on last year’s offensive ratings, Cincinnati plays the league’s 14th-hardest set of offenses, per ftnfantasy.com.Â
How does that apply to the offense?Â
It likely means the unit needs to play better to clear this number.Â
The good news for Cincinnati? Barring injury, Joe Burrow has successfully led this offense to point total overs.Â
Burrow played at least 16 games three times in his career.Â
The Bengals finished over this number twice, with the lone failure coming in a shortened season due to Damar Hamlin’s injury on MNF.Â
Last season, Cincinnati ranked fifth in offensive DVOA. Realistically, they need to regress in order to finish under this point total.Â
But if they improve, Cincinnati enters territory with five teams that have all cleared this number.Â
Personally, I see a path to the Bengals offense improving.Â
Last year, the offense took a HUGE step forward when Chase Brown started receiving more snaps.Â
Brown took 79% or more snaps every week from Weeks 9-17. The Bengals scored 32.3 points per game in those contests, despite missing Tee Higgins for two of those games.Â
Over that span, the Bengals ranked fifth and second in EPA per play and success rate, respectively. From Week 1-8: 8th and 13th.Â
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