- The Falcons are a 2-point home favorite against the Commanders.
- The Commanders have won eight of their last nine against NFC South opponents.
- My Falcons vs Commanders prediction is for Atlanta (+2.5) to cover the spread.
After a blowout loss against the Panthers, the Falcons return home to face the Commanders.Â
Atlanta delivered a completely uninspiring performance in Week 3. As six-point road favorites, the Falcons lost 30-0 to their division rivals, dropping to 1-2.Â
Washington eased to a win and cover over the Raiders. With extra time to prepare, the Commanders dropped 41 points on Las Vegas without Jayden Daniels.Â
Bet on Falcons vs. Commanders and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.Â
Falcons vs. Commanders: NFL Week 4 Odds
Falcons vs. Commanders Prediction
Based on the historical success of home underdogs off a blowout loss and Atlanta’s strong defensive record, my Falcons vs Commanders prediction is the Falcons Spread (+2.5, -110).Â
Daniels’ status offers a potential lynchpin for this game. If Washington announces he’s playing, the line could easily balloon up from the current line.Â
Accordingly, I won’t fault anyone who wants to wait for news before deciding on this market.Â
That said, it’s Atlanta or nothing from a side standpoint.Â
Washington occupies a prime sell-high spot after a blowout win. However, the team’s Week 3 spot offered a glaring advantage for Washington.Â
Dan Quinn’s team played with 10 days between games after a Week 2 TNF spot. Meanwhile, Las Vegas played a road game after a home MNF contest.Â
Conversely, Atlanta sits in a strong buy-low spot. After delivering a horrid performance at Carolina, very few will want to back the Falcons.Â
However, history indicates it’s a decent spot to take the points. Since 2003, home dogs off a 20+ point loss are 130-97-7 (57.3%) against previous home teams.Â
When those teams face an opponent off a 15+ point win: 36-18-2 ATS (66.7%), including 9-1 over the last 10.Â
Finally, a revenge angle exists for Atlanta. The Falcons lost late last year at Washington in overtime, despite leading 17-7 at halftime.Â
In the end, Atlanta finished with a 5.6-5.4 yards per play edge. All of that leads me to consider the Falcons as home dogs, but I’ll wait to see where the number settles.Â
Betting Falcons vs. Commanders: NFL Public Betting
| Team | % of ATS Bets | % of ATS Money | % of ML Bets | % of ML Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 65% | 55% | 71% | 57% |
| Falcons | 35% | 45% | 29% | 43% |
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